Welcome, Guest
Username: Password: Remember me
CYTX Financial performance development

TOPIC: Some notes on forthcoming YE results

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 17 Jan 2016 14:26 #6038

  • fas
  • fas's Avatar Topic Author
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Moderator
  • May the fat be with you
  • Posts: 3348
  • Thank you received: 1116
I have not looked at Q10´s in ages and since we are staring at a Chapter 11 market cap of 29 Mio of a Company which spent to date about 354 Mio for its technology, my basic objective (as a former financial officer) was to get some comfort - in respect of the "going concern" issues of Cytori.

Same objectives surely will be in the minds of the KPMG auditors, which will have to sign off on the annual statements early March. If the market price is still as today at that point in time and no cash is added, than reading the auditor´s report will be a vital thing to do.... :whistle:

Anyway- we all know that we are approaching a "make or break" time frame in the development of Cytori- especially considering the melt-down at Global Exchanges and the possible bear market following...

In the light thereof- I am extremely pleased with at least "the controllable part" of the Cytori financials- Girao is definitely doing an excellent job and has things under control, is my conclusion after a review of two hours or so... just some notes...

Note 1: With all warrants gone and only shares OS left- the warrant liability of 12.5 Mio as of 30-09, is not required any longer and will be released to income- of course a non-cash item- but nonetheless - Q4 will be highly profitable ... :grin: :grin:

Note 2: cost control-



The reductions in G&A and S&M are impressive, allowing to add to R&D which drives the business i.e. clinics and tech development.

Note 3: in the Q3 report an indication was made that roughly half of the BARDA option 1 should be completed in 2015. That option was 14.1 Mio and so far we had 5.0 Mio. Should be a credit to income of 2.0 Mio plus in Q4 I assume.

Note 4: Do not want to speculate on Q4 revenues but do not expect anything there based on the 22 Mio cash burn guidance (which is excellent)- I simply see 8 Mio overhead expense minus 2 Mio BARDA revenues and a roughly 1 Mio gross margin on product revenues.

With 19 Mio in the coffers at September end and a burn of 6 Mio or so per quarter- no Oxford redemptions until June and approx. 1.7 Mio due to Olympus until that time, our favorite management at Callan Road has 6 months to monetize the OA, Scleroderma, Cardiac and Japanese opportunities...

I wish them and us much luck... in my mind should not be all that difficult. :yawn:
Attachments:
The following user(s) said Thank You: Joncon63, mtpinman, rongside, myownhedgefund, d9dozrman, Wall Street Titan, franshei, Old Young Fox

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 17 Jan 2016 18:33 #6039

  • d9dozrman
  • d9dozrman's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Expert Boarder
  • Expert Boarder
  • Posts: 151
  • Thank you received: 21
Thank you fas for your impeccable insight, I hope something can be salvaged here for those invested.
I fear the fat lady.

d9

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 17 Jan 2016 19:33 #6040

  • myownhedgefund
  • myownhedgefund's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 2843
  • Thank you received: 203
Agree on Girao

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 18 Jan 2016 10:38 #6041

  • franshei
  • franshei's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 790
  • Thank you received: 103
Fas, I am no financial accountant, but I do agree with your assessment. Since the JPM 2016 Biotech Showcase, I wrote Girao twice and in one of my emails, I did ask him 2 questions relating to what you are pointing to. After a 2-3 day delay (Girao always replies my emails almost instantaneously), his reply is in the same vein as yours. (I think Hedrick and Girao were talking to some big money men after the Showcase, he has said before institutional investors are important.)

I think right now there are 3 important areas needed to win/or resolved : 1. NASDAQ hearing (I think r/s is not CYTX's immediate choice-Girao did not want to address this question with me) ; 2. OA interim clinical data (it should be positive, but potential partners may have some suggestions on the future study designs, etc.); 3. Potential partnerships (re OA and maybe sscleroderma and other indications in the same deal to allow some kind of upfront payment and milestone payments).

Until now, I have not considered potential CYTX possible, because most big pharmas are not serious with stem cells, except some basic r/d (they did the same with lipid encapsulated drugs and antisenses oligos 20 years ago - but things have changed dramatically since; just look at ISIS and Gilead). As DOV has mentioned and now Girao, CYTX is actively talking to potential partners (though there is no gurantee of immediate success). I think Hayden is smart focusing in medical device companies

From what I can read the 4th Q results maybe good as long as Bimini (alopecia US clinicals) and Lorem (under contract they have to fulfill their obligations) are helpful.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 19 Jan 2016 11:40 #6048

  • Wall Street Titan
  • Wall Street Titan's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 893
  • Thank you received: 148
Thanks for doing this work Fas. Good catch on the reversal of the warrant liability. I have liked Tiago from the start but the hole he has to dig out of is still very deep.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 19 Jan 2016 11:59 #6049

  • Joncon63
  • Joncon63's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Expert Boarder
  • Expert Boarder
  • Posts: 90
  • Thank you received: 6
Dig baby Dig!

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 19 Jan 2016 12:34 #6051

  • fas
  • fas's Avatar Topic Author
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Moderator
  • May the fat be with you
  • Posts: 3348
  • Thank you received: 1116
Some news on an OA partner candidate... :whistle: Source : Yahoo Finance



(Reuters) - Johnson & Johnson said on Tuesday it would cut about 3,000 jobs within its medical devices unit over the next two years, or about 4 to 6 percent of the struggling division's global workforce, to generate annual cost savings of up to $1 billion and focus on more innovative products.

The job cuts relate to J&J's orthopedics, surgery and cardiovascular operations, although there are no immediate plans to pare back or eliminate specific products, said company spokesman Ernie Knewitz.

He did not provide specific regions for the cuts.

"The savings will help us grow our (device) business," Knewitz said. "That could involve acquisitions, but it will also involve investing in our own internal programs."

The company's consumer medical devices, vision care and diabetes care will not be affected, J&J said.

J&J's medical device sales reached almost $19 billion in the first nine months of 2015, but fell 10.4 percent, making the wide array of products the company's poorest-performing segment.

By contrast, sales of J&J's prescription drugs fell 3.9 percent and sales of its consumer products fell 6.5 percent in the same period, also hurt by a stronger dollar which lowers sales in overseas markets.

The company said it expected to record pretax restructuring charges of $2.0 billion to $2.4 billion in connection with these plans, of which about $600 million will be recorded in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Leerink analysts said the announcement meant that an acquisition was still in the cards for J&J, given that it had about $37 billion in cash as of the end of the third quarter.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 19 Jan 2016 14:24 #6054

  • CalhounDoppelganger
  • CalhounDoppelganger's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Gold Boarder
  • Gold Boarder
  • Posts: 160
  • Thank you received: 20
I hope J&J does not attempt to buy Cytori for $2.00 per share. :joy:

:bash:

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 19 Jan 2016 21:59 #6055

  • fas
  • fas's Avatar Topic Author
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Moderator
  • May the fat be with you
  • Posts: 3348
  • Thank you received: 1116

CalhounDoppelganger wrote: I hope J&J does not attempt to buy Cytori for $2.00 per share. :joy:

:bash:


If I was J&J I would, but probably only would pay 1$ for the joint.. :grin:

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 20 Jan 2016 09:26 #6057

  • fatboy
  • fatboy's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 416
  • Thank you received: 77

I hope J&J does not attempt to buy Cytori for $2.00 per share



Two dollars a share for a fifteen cent stock? I want some of what you are smokin! :KO:

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 20 Jan 2016 11:48 #6061

  • cytxer
  • cytxer's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 347
  • Thank you received: 25

CalhounDoppelganger wrote: I hope J&J does not attempt to buy Cytori for $2.00 per share. :joy:

:bash:


Hey, 2 $ a share will be the same as having a 60 million $ revenue a year... how many years do you think that will take?

:really:

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 20 Jan 2016 12:20 #6062

  • CalhounDoppelganger
  • CalhounDoppelganger's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Gold Boarder
  • Gold Boarder
  • Posts: 160
  • Thank you received: 20

cytxer wrote:

CalhounDoppelganger wrote: I hope J&J does not attempt to buy Cytori for $2.00 per share. :joy:

:bash:


Hey, 2 $ a share will be the same as having a 60 million $ revenue a year... how many years do you think that will take?

:really:


haha with J&J it will take 2 years. Something tells me they could expedite BARDA a wee bit better than current Board.

Without J&J......hmm, where's DOV's spreadsheet again? :cry:

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 20 Jan 2016 13:03 #6063

  • cytxer
  • cytxer's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 347
  • Thank you received: 25
J&J... HA!

Chris, please stop.. You know better there is nobody, and if there were, the price is too high. The scraps should be bought for 50 million, at most.

I think the buyout price should be sub-dollar, my guess is half that. (And since "they" kept selling in the 0.20s then one could guess no buyout).

This poor thing has been bleeding and it doesn't look good... why would they pay one half billion for this "Has been". :whistle:

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 20 Jan 2016 13:29 #6064

  • myownhedgefund
  • myownhedgefund's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 2843
  • Thank you received: 203
***hmm, where's DOV's spreadsheet again?***

The last posted DOV spreadsheet has 2020 earnings at $1.05 but he since has mentioned a revision of that figure to $0.72

I once thought 2020 could see earnings at $0.19 but now see zero chance of even that happening based on the expected reimbursement timelines.

Yesterdays news ? :yawn: A small win for Fas on one of his favorite applications I guess.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 20 Jan 2016 17:59 #6066

  • rothco619
  • rothco619's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 467
  • Thank you received: 67
Cytori is nothing but a pile of

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 01 Mar 2016 05:44 #6503

  • fas
  • fas's Avatar Topic Author
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Moderator
  • May the fat be with you
  • Posts: 3348
  • Thank you received: 1116
We are approaching March 3td when the financials will be issued and the year-end Call will take place.

In view of the present 20 cents PPS, special attention should be awarded - as stated above- on the Auditor´s Opinion in the 10K, which is normally issued a few days after the release of the numbers. I know structured financings are always possible and available at present market prices also, but politically impossible for a Cytori CEO and CFO with the track-record they have build up in the finance arena the past 18 months. :evil:

So- we are approaching interesting times with "surprise" potential. :whistle:

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 01 Mar 2016 06:25 #6504

  • myownhedgefund
  • myownhedgefund's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 2843
  • Thank you received: 203
While we desperately need the financial surprise I would also enjoy the surprise of more talk or even better yet, disclosure of results, on the vascular study in Japan recently mentioned by Hedrick.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 01 Mar 2016 07:44 #6505

  • franshei
  • franshei's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 790
  • Thank you received: 103
FAS

You are implying some thing. Your partner met Hamilton and Girao recently.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 01 Mar 2016 07:55 #6506

  • DOV
  • DOV's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 347
  • Thank you received: 194
Hedge,

Recent communication both publicly and privately suggest that my spreadsheet is reasonably accurate. For the conference call, I have pleaded with Hedrick to talk about the demand for scleroderma treatment post reimbursement approval. He has given us the number of patients who immediately qualify for the treatment here and in the EU, but has not provided any indication of how fast these patients can or will be treated. Reimbursement could come anywhere from very late 2017 to mid 2019. That is a very wide time frame. Still, it is before 2020.

I also believe the commercial update in Japan and the Idis press releases were designed to suggest without committing to a sales ramp that will continue to slow the cash burn. There won't be enough sales in 2016 or 2017 to be profitable, but there could be in 2018 (where I currently project $.09 in EPS). Once the scleroderma reimbursement hits, we are home free.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Some notes on forthcoming YE results 01 Mar 2016 07:58 #6507

  • fas
  • fas's Avatar Topic Author
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Moderator
  • May the fat be with you
  • Posts: 3348
  • Thank you received: 1116

franshei wrote: FAS

You are implying some thing. Your partner met Hamilton and Girao recently.


No - I am not implying anything- we have not been in touch and he loaths "frontrunning" or inside knowledge. My key issue is, that if somebody states that they rejected an offer to partner scleroderma in the US, than that person MUST have other things in his sleeve to get us out of the mess we are in... :evil:

And I do not see an RS as a solution either.. :puke:

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:
Time to create page: 0.520 seconds

Copyright Information

Copyright Fas Kuiters © 2016 young-foxes.com. All Rights Reserved.
This page is made with Joomla CMS and its various templates designed by Fas Kuiters with the excellent Themler tool.

 

 

Shared Spreadsheet Links

DOV´s Revised Projections for the Periods 2017 until 2020

Shareble link : HERE

Fas Kuiters Websites