Welcome, Guest
Username: Password: Remember me
CYTX Financial performance development
  • Page:
  • 1
  • 2

TOPIC: Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 30 Aug 2015 13:09 #5099

  • DOV
  • DOV's Avatar Topic Author
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 347
  • Thank you received: 194
The company does not breakout this many different sources of revenue on a regular basis, but on occasion they are referenced either deep within the 10K or from press releases. I believe it is valuable to follow each source separately since each has its own regulatory burdens as well as private ROI goals. I have added notes supporting the calculations for most rows as well as a few higher level accomplishments that I expect to happen. For example: Hedrick has made statements that the OA Phase III trial in the US could start as early as late summer of 2016. For this to happen a partner must be secured between the fall of 2015 and the spring of 2016. Jeremy Hayden was hired to negotiate this partnership and I have assumed he will be successful in bringing in $20 million in up-front cash as well as a full commitment to pay the cost of the phase III trial estimated at $20 million. This is not a great deal for Cytori, but it follows the recent pattern of extremely high cost of capital.

Hedrick has also pushed out timelines that I believe are to extreme levels. But, I understand the goal of reducing expectations and then over-delivering on them. After a few years of observing the company exceeding expectations, NEW INVESTORS will become comfortable with company projections. Old investors will continue to doubt everything all of the time.

For the record, I do believe the worst is now behind us. The second closing was the last capital raise to demonstrate desperation by the management team at Cytori. Perhaps foolishly, I believe future capital raises will be from partnerships and I HOPE will not include newly issued stock. Stock ownership is now the weakest it has ever been and has nowhere to go but up. Olympus has sold out; KT Lim has sold out; Green Hospital worries me and could sell out at any time; Astellas remains a partner and does not worry me.

Also, for the record, I have not spoken to anyone at Cytori in a very long time and am not on good terms with them.
Attachments:
The following user(s) said Thank You: Joncon63, d9dozrman, Old Young Fox

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 30 Aug 2015 15:58 #5100

  • Lugano
  • Lugano's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Junior Boarder
  • Junior Boarder
  • Posts: 35
  • Thank you received: 0
Thank you - do you think a reverse split is still likely to happen?

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 30 Aug 2015 21:28 #5101

  • myownhedgefund
  • myownhedgefund's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 2820
  • Thank you received: 201
***Olympus has sold out;***

Of course they did, to think otherwise after they dropped below the reporting ownership was foolish IMHO and stated so at the time !!!

***KT Lim has sold out***

Of course he did, to think otherwise after they dropped below the reporting ownership was foolish IMHO and stated so at the time !!!

***Green Hospital worries me and could sell out at any time***

Actually surprised they have hung in there all these years. They kinda had their own banking crisis if you know what I mean...LOL

****Astellas remains a partner and does not worry me.***

This deal also has gone nowhere. What did they pay $7 ? They couldn't deliver on the liver ! :grin:

DOV...glad to see you have a more reasonable number for upfront cash with $20 million. I know you were postulating CYTX needed $60 million to clear the books so to speak. Now who is going to convert DOV's spreadsheet again so we can all read it without downloading software. Thanks in advance !

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 31 Aug 2015 05:10 #5102

  • fas
  • fas's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Moderator
  • May the fat be with you
  • Posts: 3332
  • Thank you received: 1114

Now who is going to convert DOV's spreadsheet again so we can all read it without downloading software. Thanks in advance !


I created a "shareable link" at Google Sheets: click HERE

For those who want to bookmark the link: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KK3E6ssrfrgULvNf-VyfRzWA2PJyX--BiN4P9lSIhTM/edit?usp=sharing
The following user(s) said Thank You: myownhedgefund

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 31 Aug 2015 07:09 #5103

  • DOV
  • DOV's Avatar Topic Author
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 347
  • Thank you received: 194
Thank you, Fas! If I knew how to do it myself I would have done so.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 31 Aug 2015 07:27 #5104

  • myownhedgefund
  • myownhedgefund's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 2820
  • Thank you received: 201
Yes, thank you Fas

DOV...your usual attention to detail, thanks for sharing.

A few comparisons to my very rough estimate I recently posted.
I was probably light on what Lorem bring in by 2020 but wanted to be extremely conservative
I gave no accounting for earnings from cash vs your 2020 $4 million estimate
I see your now in line with what I was then projecting as 225-240 million shares out by 2020 (Your count 233.5 million I believe) Even better is no share buyback in this spreadsheet !!!!!
My estimate on OA didn't have the consumable as a separate profit charge but rather just 2K revenue per procedure

2 questions though.

1. I thought you posted you were somewhere in the $190's million for 2020 earnings and in this spreadsheet you have $244 million. Something change in your mind for the positive or just the more refined spreadsheet came out with a larger number ?

2. Scleroderma USA reimbursement $25000....can you break that out a bit ? Is this for the whole procedure or what you expect Cytori to get for their share ?

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 31 Aug 2015 07:30 #5105

  • DOV
  • DOV's Avatar Topic Author
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 347
  • Thank you received: 194
Hedge,

The appropriate number for upfront cash has a lot to do with the partner. Zimmer is the number one supplier of knee replacements followed by Depuy, Stryker, Smith and Nephew, Biomet, and a few others. If Hayden can land a partnership with a company that already has 10,000 orthopedic surgeons as customers, a $100 million upfront cash payment will easily yield a ROI of 25% in the first 4 years after FDA approval. If the partner has to start from scratch, who knows what the right number should be. The $20 million was chosen because it paid off the debt that has brought this company to its knees (pun intended).

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 31 Aug 2015 07:37 #5106

  • myownhedgefund
  • myownhedgefund's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 2820
  • Thank you received: 201
Agreed
We also have a new face on our side of the table....so perhaps things can be a bit different than history has conditioned us.

Did you catch my 2 questions on this spreadsheet ?

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 31 Aug 2015 07:54 #5107

  • DOV
  • DOV's Avatar Topic Author
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 347
  • Thank you received: 194
For simplicities sake, I assumed the consumable cost to Cytori would be covered by the procedure and Cytori would net $2,000 against no cost of goods sold. The partner would also net $2,000 for each procedure.

The shares outstanding has been a disaster. I think 3 million incentive stock options for employees of all rank plus the BOD is about right. The recent filing disclosed the fully diluted number so that is my base.

I make changes many times between posts so I can not relate to past documents very accurately. For instance, while reading last year's 10K, I discovered a breakout of sales in greater detail by world region so I added revenue sources. I also checked to see if we still support Dr Fung in Cleveland for breast implant removal replaced with a fat injection - one to two cases per month with JIT inventory.

Scleroderma is likely where the increased revenue came from. In the past I used $10,000 per case instead of the $50,000 Hedrick used. Based on his comments on the last call, insurance currently pays $92,000 per year for a drug that is questionable and about to come off patent. Based on this, I increased my estimate to $25,000 revenue to Cytori for each procedure. The additional cost of having a Cytori employee on site to actually make the drug was not included in cost of goods sold, but in Sales and Marketing.

I also made adjustments downward to gross margins. The company has not mentioned the Wales operation in quite some time. I believe the drop in reported gross margins has something to do with shipping component parts from San Diego to Wales. This is an area we should start to hear about as the prototypes complete the check and adjust process. More parts will be sourced from the UK and less from San Diego.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 31 Aug 2015 08:45 #5110

  • cytxer
  • cytxer's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 347
  • Thank you received: 25
I think knee is already a saturated market... Others do not require a surgery before you get your cells either.

Scleroderma could be a winner, but if someone else jumps in then this tortoise will lose that race as well.....

in 2008, when Chris poopooed OA and "smaller markets" and went after heart - HA - he doomed the company, slow motion nose dive - and some shrinking bounces of the ground - since 2012... That is all......

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 31 Aug 2015 09:46 #5112

  • myownhedgefund
  • myownhedgefund's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 2820
  • Thank you received: 201
DOV
Scleroderma: OK, I see. Originally when the 50K price was mentioned I thought well perhaps not that high but thought given the "orphan" nature $25-35K was doable. I know you were using $10K in the past and I believe 8K was mentioned as the consumable sales price to Okyanos. Anyway I had adjusted to your $10K then down to $8K per procedure in latest guestimate for me...which now seems in error. As far as a on site Cytori employee for approval of each batch....I thought this was to be done remotely ? Yes a approval per batch must be given but not necessarily at the scleroderma site. Am I misunderstanding this point ?

OA: OK we are in the same boat then. I really like the potential of this app. Not just the overall size but the annual growth of the pool of potential patients vs scleroderma pool, which once treated, will grow slowly.

Margins: I noticed your lower margin number. I also thought the once suggested 85% gross margin was out the window.

Thanks: Unfortunately, its still a waiting game but at least we have 2 targets with OA and scleroderma.

cytxer: if both you and CC are down on OA market then I KNOW we really have a potential winner...LOL :grin:

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 31 Aug 2015 10:50 #5114

  • cytxer
  • cytxer's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 347
  • Thank you received: 25

myownhedgefund wrote:
cytxer: if both you and CC are down on OA market then I KNOW we really have a potential winner...LOL :grin:


I know, that's why you kept keeping them since "if you don't sell you don't lose" approach from the mid 2 dollars, and I can buy 9 times the number of shares when I sold... I told you but you went the opposite :joy:

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 31 Aug 2015 13:14 #5118

  • myownhedgefund
  • myownhedgefund's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 2820
  • Thank you received: 201
So you are saying you are a buyer here ! :joy:

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 01 Sep 2015 07:22 #5122

  • DOV
  • DOV's Avatar Topic Author
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 347
  • Thank you received: 194
Lugano,

I think there is a lot of progress to be made prior to the actual delisting date. I have not researched the date this time around, but I assumed the company still has a year to get the price above $1 to avoid delisting. If correct, that would put the date around May.

The stock does not always respond to press releases confirming a known event such as the first patient was treated in the US based STAR trial. Today, the first patient will be treated in Japan for the SUI Trial and I would expect no stock price reaction to that news either since it is a known event.

The type of events that would move the stock are the ones that have a high probability of leading the company out of he hole. A significant partnership would validate the technology and the business model. Doing a partnership with Chris Calhoun's company would not move the stock!!! In other words, the partnership needs to be with a big name company capable of funding Cytori with a decent amount of up-front cash and the $20 million necessary to fund the phase III trial. In addition, I would like to see another backend milestone event triggered by FDA approval and reimbursement for the procedure. Ideally, that would be a Celution purchase agreement to seed the orthopedic community with the ability to do the procedures.

Hedrick stated that work would begin this fall to draft the phase III trial. All 94 patients will have had their 13 week exams by mid September. Not sure if any press releases will come out of that, but the planning will be based on this data and that can be shared with potential partners.

The only other known event will be the presentation of the ATHENA I data at the AHA November meeting. The PRECISE Trial was almost identical to the ATHENA Trial. Because the company has chosen to wait until this AHA meeting, the results are likely to be as expected (similar to PRECISE).

The ACT-OA results will be released in Feb/Mar and that should be a major event.

Other than these events, I am not aware of any news that would propel the stock above $1 in time to avoid delisting. Bottom line is: a partnership and/or phase II data are the only events that could cause a major shift in valuation.

If you want examples of how unfairly the market is valuing Cytori's stock, take a look at Receptos RCPT. They would be a direct competitor to stem cell therapies for MS, Diabetes, and Crohn's, all areas where Cytori has interests. Another is Mannkind MNKD; Keryx BioPharma KERX; ZS Pharma ZSPH; Synageva BioPharma GEVA. All of these companies have lower revenues than Cytori, fewer drugs in phase II and phase III trials, smaller potential markets, much more cash than Cytori and market caps of $1 billion to $8 billion.

Wall Street still views Cytori as a medical device company. Nobody agrees with the FDA that Cytori makes drugs.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Lugano

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 01 Sep 2015 09:06 #5123

  • cytxer
  • cytxer's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 347
  • Thank you received: 25

DOV wrote:
If you want examples of how unfairly the market is valuing Cytori's stock, take a look at Receptos RCPT. They would be a direct competitor to stem cell therapies for MS, Diabetes, and Crohn's, all areas where Cytori has interests. Another is Mannkind MNKD; Keryx BioPharma KERX; ZS Pharma ZSPH; Synageva BioPharma GEVA. All of these companies have lower revenues than Cytori, fewer drugs in phase II and phase III trials, smaller potential markets, much more cash than Cytori and market caps of $1 billion to $8 billion.

Wall Street still views Cytori as a medical device company. Nobody agrees with the FDA that Cytori makes drugs.



For those newbies that think DOV has a point, I must tell you that he and his friends know how this works... some companies are pumped and some are bashed... There are several reasons behind this "grouping" which mostly because of technical/fundamental combination of viewpoints...


For instance: LNKD, AMZN, TSLA, NFLX were all WAY overvalued for WAY too long... but see how they made out, they climbed higher (much higher) than when they were called "too expensive"... Because the sharks knew the trend was up, so they kept selling to the short sellers while taking the juice, on the way up (10% profit every week-month) for YEARS... A TON OF PROFIT


Same thing for some dogs... Like CYTX, you keep selling to the longs while the trend is lower...

In both cases you must have a way to gather the idiots... look how he goes on ATHENA (LMAO) the thing was halted and the discontinued while Marc was selling 50 million share lots to survive...

Are you telling me he was sitting on a gold mine while he was "giving the company away"? can you say lawsuit?

HAS DOV BEEN EVER RIGHT? about the predictions or about "the things he heard that the company was about to do"? ALL THESE YEARS!

Anyway, It's your money, spend it accordingly.
:vegas:

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 01 Sep 2015 09:17 #5124

  • myownhedgefund
  • myownhedgefund's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 2820
  • Thank you received: 201
***Doing a partnership with Chris Calhoun's company would not move the stock!!!***

It might move it down !! :evil: :puke: :cry:


***Other than these events, I am not aware of any news that would propel the stock above $1 in time to avoid delisting***

You left out Sabby ownership at $0.77 and perhaps $0.3263...who knows where his average is but when he owned at $0.52 we got a very nice pop above $1 for him to sell into and participate again. I doubt this time is also anything more than a trade.

***much more cash than Cytori and market caps of $1 billion to $8 billion***.


I don't know anyone who has been screaming about the connection of cash levels and market cap valuations !!! :bash: :grin: :KO: :bang:


***Wall Street still views Cytori as a medical device company. Nobody agrees with the FDA that Cytori makes drugs***

I think its more the business model for drugs is a Known. The approval process for drugs is known. Patient acceptance of drugs as therapy is known. Cytori is one big unknown....especially in the above areas, let alone all the hush hush around translational trials. Device companies, while valued more cheaply, can still make you money, especially with a sales ramp...example, EW doing very nicely last few years.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 01 Sep 2015 09:22 #5125

  • franshei
  • franshei's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 790
  • Thank you received: 103
CYTXER

Does the current pop have something to do with the 40 cents warrant ? At 40 cents or so, CYTX may get more cash.

Earlier this year, Sabby bought shares around 52 cents and probably bought more shares through excercising warrants at a slightly higher price, before the PPS moving to $ 1.50. Are we seeing a repeat?

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 01 Sep 2015 09:39 #5126

  • cytxer
  • cytxer's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 347
  • Thank you received: 25
Franshei, Probably a part of it, also if you look at the channel trading which is very popular (and only one piece of the puzzle) with the sharks... Cytori was going to bounce, so they squeezed the last couple of pennies (in high .20s) before the news came out. This practice was illegal but somehow is legal since the crash, they just pay some money to the government when/if caught.

Like I always say, you have trade them or don't bother... I am not saying there isn't an opportunity (Like I said yesterday for the few pennies bounce) but I just want to make sure the this people keep an eye on the exit door as well...

Markets are going through a major correction.. we are at the first stages of multi year correction.... how bad is it gonna get? some people think worse than 2008.. some people don't think as bad... But the point is that investing for the next couple of years is mostly a bad idea.... Cytori is awful idea, they will need cash all the time for the next couple of years, and the pace is increasing, wonder why....

Remember Japan, almost two years ago, when DOV and Marc - in the same week - came out saying all those wonderful things.... ahhh the good ole days....

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 01 Sep 2015 16:29 #5127

  • Lugano
  • Lugano's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Junior Boarder
  • Junior Boarder
  • Posts: 35
  • Thank you received: 0
DOV, thanks for sharing your assessment, appreciate that.

I am really curious to see the future development of the company.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Cytori Financial Projections dated August 30, 2015 02 Sep 2015 11:35 #5128

  • franshei
  • franshei's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 790
  • Thank you received: 103
CYTXer, re your criticism of DOV and others,

I think you and forget are experts in technical analysis, though forget is often wrong and you are always right (just my personal opinion).

DOV and many others are really looking at CYTX from a fundamental perspective. Yet, many assumptions for the original business plan from CC and Saad are wrong. Saad and CC centers in successful clinical development in big indications and big business partnerships. Cardio indication is always a very difficult and expensive proposition. In the absence of big money infusion and with big debt, CYTX has to reorganize under Rickey and Hedrick. I think Rickey and Hedrick, as well as Girao and now Hayden, are doing a great job to turn this company around with niche clinical indications, under tight financial management.

In the past, CC and Saad gave out a lot of so-called "insider" financial and other information (probably non confidential) to people like DOV.and WST. Now, things have changed. I think Girao and Hedrick are tight lipped (I think the new Human Resources VP is also involved in information management/communication). Without current so-called "insider" information, I think DOV's so-called financial spread sheet may have pitfalls. In other words, the true "CYTX insider story" is yet to be explored (by the commons like most of us).

Hedrick is having an investors' online interactive conference on September 10 to address our concerns.
The following user(s) said Thank You: ruedhajan

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

  • Page:
  • 1
  • 2
Time to create page: 0.158 seconds

Copyright Information

Copyright Fas Kuiters © 2016 young-foxes.com. All Rights Reserved.
This page is made with Joomla CMS and its various templates designed by Fas Kuiters with the excellent Themler tool.

 

 

Shared Spreadsheet Links

DOV´s Revised Projections for the Periods 2017 until 2020

Shareble link : HERE

Fas Kuiters Websites