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TOPIC: Q4 Financials estimates

Q4 Financials estimates 07 Mar 2013 09:51 #249

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WST and myself apparently were yesterday staring in disbelief at the same time what was happening with Osiris. The stock went up 33% purely on financial performance, which now also convinces yours truly that Wallstreet just looks at numbers and is hardly interested in potential and all that razzmatazz. Amazing.
But tells me also to start focusing on that a lot more than I have been doing, since I was only interested in the science and opportunities.

No sweat- I am a financial wizard- and there is no analyst around with my experience in this field- I however simply find it boring though.
I had just a quick glance at the P/L of Cytori as reported in Q3 and estimated whether surprises are possible for CYTX.
Just a small one I believe- there are a few numbers which are difficult to guestimate (the option liability provision for instance and any deferred revenue being charged to income. Without any big surprises we should come out at about a 14c per share loss with the analysts consesnsus being at 15c according to Yahoo.


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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Q4 Financials estimates 07 Mar 2013 11:16 #250

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Thanks for your estimate Fas.
Money matters here.
Reimbursement matters.
There is no clear pathway for this field yet...a new cancer drug or antibiotic can be easily modeled thus a company valued on potential.

Here, throw in a completely untrustworthy CEO and a Chairman that was supposed to fix the problem and we get our current valuation problems imho.

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Q4 Financials estimates 07 Mar 2013 15:27 #253

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Wow- only 6 cents loss. Product Revenue in line- 4 Mio.

The provisions for option/warrant accruals - a plus impact of 1.5 Mio
Deferred revenue credited 3.3 Mio - a bit of barda, a bit of Olympus and a whole lot unrelated- that must be SurgiWrap where they are giving up or gotten approval? The last I cannot imagine.

Burning question - will we get an Osiris "effect" tomorrow? that would mean $4 at the close. I bet the shorts do not like this and CC can add another "blow" in the call.

Will walk the dog now. :vegas: :vegas: :vegas:
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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Q4 Financials estimates 07 Mar 2013 15:50 #254

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I must say, I did not expect those numbers!! I might just hafta change my outlook to...... Cautiously, Maybe , Kinda, Sorta optimistic! :KO: But I'll give it a week before I will put that in stone. :grin:

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Subsequent Conference call 07 Mar 2013 17:45 #255

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Fresh from the "liver" so to speak- my initial assessment, although I normally prefer to sleep a night and than say/write anything-

Overall I think it was honest and a lot better than in the past 12 years (!)

Do not forget- we are dealing here with DISRUPTIVE technology for which those folks in SD want their PRICE. They will NOT sign a deal which under-values the tech. They have my sympathy -although it hurts sometimes :cry:

At least my emphasis on "translational" work was the highlight (IMO) - the SUI stuff in Nagoya, to me is a no-brainer and will be successful after what we learned about the initial results.
I appreciated the information on breast reconstruction in the UK, since CC told me about that in January- I would have blown my top, if that was not mentioned.
The strategy is right- as long as a deal is NOT signed- be careful with the money, so setting priorities (ATHENA, BARDA) is right. ADVANCE limit on 25 patients make sense than- indirectly it says OK we can treat a lot more if we have the cash.

The thing I am pondering about- is all that happened with translational stuff really government and miscellaneous sources and NOT Big Pharma? I have to sleep on that.

On the other side- it was business as usual- we are not at fault - we reached our milestones and objectives- no remorse or whatever, which pisses me off.

OK- those are the two prevailing thoughts in my head- I will have to let it sink. :cool:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Subsequent Conference call 07 Mar 2013 18:44 #256

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I lean more towards brisauto's side Fas !!!

No partnership in 2013 unless it is a small government type.
"Contract stage" to nothing means Calhoun blew it imho. I mean, if the break up was price...how were they ever in the "contract stage" ?

UK Breast recon. failures means million in cash was wasted along with years in time for others to catch up. Not to mention the price long term shareholders paid in dilution. No mention of Breast recon. reimbursement in Japan sure doesnt sound like a positive.

I dont see how they thread the cash needle at this point without another raise or they think they can get the PPS high enough that warrants are redeemed. Even then what gets reimbursement in a timely fashion ? Best case for CMI is 2016. BARDA celution placements carry the day...arent we talking the 10K price version.

ADVANCE back on the (slow) track. Maxim will be taking down their 2020 cardiac revenue again...but DOV is the only one I know who publicly believed that fairy tale...LOL Poor guy, Calhouned so long, so hard !!!

We do at least have some genuine translational interest but unknown where this will lead post data.

It all leads me to believe that we are where I thought after the last secondary...some inflection but really inning 2 of the game.

Myownhedgefunds best case PPS target remains at $6.15 for 2013. Yes, another year of single digits.

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Subsequent Conference call 08 Mar 2013 03:32 #257

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Hedge- lets deal with one issue at the time. Main thing of course- Partner deals. It is clear that Calhoun made a fool of himself in the November conference call by"announcing those deals prematurely and will not make the same mistake again, so was called back by the BOD to not say anything until the ink is dry. I think that is the right approach. :cool:

Now to what has been said-

The company has a detailed capitalization plan that includes multiple elements and is prioritized towards maximizing our access to and use of capital while, at the same time, minimizing technology and/or shareholder dilutions. We continue to pursue potential strategic partnerships but have nothing new to report as of this call. Looking forward, consummating the right strategic partnership is a top priority of both the management and the board.Historically, Cytori has delivered more strategic partnerships than any company in our peer group, and we continue to believe that we have the ability and opportunity to deliver on this. What we don't have is the ability to accurately predict which deal will come through and by when. In order to ensure that the company remains in a strong financial position, the company will continue to evaluate multiple financing options in parallel, and we will announce the consummation of a partnership at such time that our deal terms are met.[/quote]

To me that does NOT sound like no partner deals in 2013- just sound like returning to business like (non-Calhoun, so to speak) statements, which is good.

The readers of my site should have a pretty good idea (I am sure John knows) where the primary collaboration should come from. That has its own issues, but is unavoidable. At this point in time - I DO expect a resolution in 2013 and if not, going the AMGEN way is fine with me too. :grin:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Subsequent Conference call 08 Mar 2013 07:37 #259

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I understand what you are saying on the partnership front Fas...but at the same time Calhoun is still talking about terms needing to be met when he already made "contract stage" comments. I DO NOT expect him to come out state exactly what happened but I am very tired of our CEO making the mistakes of a junior executive.

I am all for under promise, over deliver.

My best case $6.15 target does have partnership money factored in...lets see if CC can make me wrong and bring in true value.

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Subsequent Conference call 08 Mar 2013 07:56 #261

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but at the same time Calhoun is still talking about terms needing to be met when he already made "contract stage" comments. I DO NOT expect him to come out state exactly what happened but I am very tired of our CEO making the mistakes of a junior executive.



I could tell you a story which would have your hair go up in horror- but I cannot. Basically there is NO argument against your argument. :really:
It is what it is- I was convinced Calhoun would not see the Q4 call as a CEO- simply for those reasons. There are other reasons that make me be careful with what I say- the reasons why, you will be able to read by Sunday or so.

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Subsequent Conference call 08 Mar 2013 08:07 #262

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All I will say on the subject is, The Macropore Deal ALWAYS remains in the back of CC's mind! :puke:

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