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TOPIC: 2017 - 2020 Revised Projections by DOV

2017 - 2020 Revised Projections by DOV 25 Mar 2017 12:42 #9081

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I have e-mailed my revised spreadsheet to Fas for alternate formatting. A few notes about the spreadsheet:

1) The share count assumes the company will not find a partner and will have to fund all cash needs through dilution.
2) Potential MAP revenue has been taken to zero since the company believes they must protect the pricing at $50,000 and the funding sources want a huge discount.
3) I have cut back revenue growth dramatically even under insurance reimbursement simply because Cytori continues to disappoint on the product revenue front.
4) On BARDA, I am assuming the pilot trial will take place this year and into next year. The results will be good enough for BARDA to approve the next steps and will spend $40 million on a much larger trial starting in mid 2018 to 2020. Revenues in 2019 will be from Celution system placements into burn hospitals.
5) Operating expense growth follows guidance in the 10-K starting on page 59.

Basically, I view this revision as a worst case scenario. That does not mean it can't be worse, but it means that if it is worse, then why bother being an investor?
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2017 - 2020 Revised Projections by DOV 26 Mar 2017 08:08 #9083

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Since I do not know what is still visible of the Lodge when I close it tomorrow ( I presume nothing- just a message to that effect)- I put the link in the FOOTER section of EVERY page under the COPYRIGHT information.

The Footer section is at the very bottom of each page.

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

2017 - 2020 Revised Projections by DOV 26 Mar 2017 10:05 #9084

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Wow! That's big disappointment from your previous spreadsheet for the 2020 projections. Instead of a potential $200 per share going to languishing below $10 for another five years.
Appreciate your work, I definitely will not be averaging cost down any more for this stock.

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2017 - 2020 Revised Projections by DOV 26 Mar 2017 13:38 #9085

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Fas, since I have promised not to post again until further notice, I can only assume that your decision for closure (which came after my last post) has more to do with the general negativity of posts re CYTX and the fact that they have become counter-productive and somewhat repetitive.

PS - I felt I had to make it clear that the closure of this MB (which a lot of CYTX investors count on) was not due to my recalcitrance.

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2017 - 2020 Revised Projections by DOV 26 Mar 2017 13:44 #9086

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This cytx-investor.com thing is the only reason cytx stays alive, pull the plug on stupid investors and it will be dead.

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2017 - 2020 Revised Projections by DOV 26 Mar 2017 14:26 #9087

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b7
Doesn't look like I will be seeing DOV's last spread sheet before the clock runs out but a few general thoughts.
I assume he has raised the number of outstanding share significantly going forward since in his comments he said he would assume no partner would come.
MAP was in trouble late last summer...DOV went to zero for the program while I went to 2-10 patients through 2019...so next to zero...LOL. A strange position being higher than DOV. I wonder if the 1.5 employees for this are even around if they don't see at least one treatment in the next year.
The BARDA trials have really been delayed...DOV now just has a government purchase in his comments, so I assume the (what I felt was quite high) 6,000 treated patients in 2020 in now out.
I have come to be quite concerned on what the US and worldwide pool for scleroderma really is once approval and reimbursement does come. Lots of focus by Cytori pushing the secondary indication of Raynaulds. I am now thinking it could be as little as $150 million in total worldwide for treated patients for scleroderma. After that maybe 7.5 million annually for new patient coming into the pool. You can double these figures when adding Raynaulds but as that gets added/ramped scleroderma should begin to fall off. (Note I used 50K per treatment and hopefully a worse case patient number scenario.) Numbers could change either way.
Cardiac dead, China dead, Burn next to dead, OA Asia only...in which Japan only sees double digit growth going forward through 2020. SUI next to dead. Breast recon when it passes in Japan will be slow. Outlier is cancer revenues if Azaya product sales get going.
The #1 reason that has killed this stock has been cash !!! Although we will see enough new stock sale to get us the US scleroderma data...it will still be a question going forward beyond that point. Lots of overhead stock supply from other financings :(
I still feel the ultimate end here is the sale of the company. Price is a absolute wildcard and not before 2020's. Yes, I do assume they at least last that long unless scleroderma data blows up in their face.
Lets hope the scleroderma data later this summer is indeed positive as that should also have at least some positive effect on market cap value.
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2017 - 2020 Revised Projections by DOV 26 Mar 2017 14:45 #9088

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b767 and all,

In four short months, Cytori will be releasing data from a Phase III FDA approved trial. It is my opinion that the Board of Directors approved the Azaya acquisition (which increases the 2017 and 2018 cash burn to $29 million each) based on their insider knowledge of the coming STAR results. The trial's primary endpoints were at 24 weeks from June 7th. The company is waiting to release data at 48 weeks because the FDA will require one year data for an approval anyway. This is a major turning point for the company. This phase III data (there were no phase I or phase II trials) will give credible institutional investors the justification needed to invest in Cytori's stock for the first time. If the P values are there and the institutions jump in, now would be the cheapest time to "double down." The best time may be to wait for the data with your finger on the buy button.

If this site does shut down tomorrow, I want to wish everyone the best. I believe in the healing power of ADRCs and I believe the FDA will be approving them for multiple applications over the next ten years. Cytori should be the first company to get an approval in the USA. Prior and current management made major mistakes by spending a lot of money going for the home run instead of hitting a few singles. The tax loss carry forwards are worth 3x the company's current market cap.

In spite of all the stock dilution over the years, my reduced projections still call for $1.76 in earnings in 2020 with a 40 million share count. By then, additional indications will be finding their way through the approval pipeline in various countries. These include: Crohn's disease, peripheral artery disease, erectile dysfunction, alopecia, thermal burns, diabetic foot ulcers, and Raynaud's disease. Hopefully, additional analysts will be drawn to the company and each indication's success will be additive.

A stock should double very 8 years to be a decent investment. Most people have a cost basis of around $50 per share. Mine is now below $10 because I believe scleroderma will be big enough to stop the dilution and fund additional approvals. Best wishes to all.
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2017 - 2020 Revised Projections by DOV 26 Mar 2017 15:15 #9089

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Thanks DOV
Still nearly triple BRiley's $0.65 2020 though.
We often disagree but always enjoy your post.
Good Luck and lets hope we finely get some positive surprises in the future !

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2017 - 2020 Revised Projections by DOV 26 Mar 2017 16:43 #9090

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Hi FAS,

Thanks again for managing the page. Sad to have a close down. I hope it will not be for too long..

BR from Hamburg

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2017 - 2020 Revised Projections by DOV 02 Apr 2017 08:52 #9094

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B Riley has increased their 2020 EPS estimate to $.83 based on 40,400,000 shares outstanding. Jason Kolbert (displaying his usual careless publications) has $2.31 for 2020 on 23,014,000 shares outstanding. Correcting his error to equal B Riley's share count, his estimate is $1.32. My share count is 39,900,000 with an estimate of $1.76 per share. Only Kolbert goes beyond 2020 and his estimate for 2024 is $8.50 EPS based on 23,385,000 shares (adjusted to 40,400,000, it is $4.92 per share).

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2017 - 2020 Revised Projections by DOV 02 Apr 2017 21:44 #9096

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I attended the LAS conference last summer Hedge with my wife and asked DR Hedrick about the cardiac, he said they pulled out of those trials for now because it cost a 100K per patient for the trial.

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