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TOPIC: What to expect on next week's 2nd Q CC

What to expect on next week's 2nd Q CC 30 Jul 2016 08:25 #7515

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Friday's volume was unusually high at 491,447 shares (7,371,705 pre-split). The buying was controlled which to me means it was not based on some wild rumor. There has been a pattern lately of the company issuing a press release or two within days of the conference call. Here are a few possibilities, but no probabilities:

An update on the Barda trial approval process and the funding
Dr. Cugat's ACL trial publication
ACT-OA formal results or some subset
Another approval in Japan to treat OA patients at a different clinic
A TRUE partnership for any number of territories and/or applications


I can envision the press release headline: 2nd quarter product revenues were $1,033,750 down 36% from $1,614,000 in the 2nd quarter of 2015. Last year’s number included $787,000 in product revenues to Lorem Vascular. Excluding this one-time sale in 2015, product revenues in the current year quarter were actually 25% higher than last year. The balance of the paragraph would speak to expected revenue contributions from the recent approval to treat patients at the Tokyo OA Clinic and the MAP with IDIS in the 2nd half of the year.

I believe this will be the LAST quarter where year/year revenues will be negative and this one is negative only because of a single sale to Lorem Vascular last year. This will open the door to address what is going on with the licensing agreement. To refresh everyone's memory, the terms of the licensing agreement were: Upon Chinese FDA 510K approval, Lorem will purchase $5 million worth of products from Cytori. In addition, Lorem would purchase a minimum of 50 Celution systems and 50 consumables per Celution system in each of the following three years. Lorem has violated this agreement by purchasing only $787,000 out of the $5 million commitment last year and to our knowledge there are no sales this year. K.T. Lim has run into unexpected obstacles and has had disagreements with his own management team that led to executive turnover. The licensing agreement for these territories represents a significant shareholder asset (it was worth $24 million). I know I would like to sell it to another licensee. I do not have a lot of sympathy for KT Lim since he sold his stock into the rally after the press release on April 6, 2015 announcing the Chinese FDA approval to market the Celution System in China. That event sent the stock into a nosedive that further diluted Cytori stockholders in the stock offering that followed.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Joncon63, d9dozrman

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What to expect on next week's 2nd Q CC 30 Jul 2016 09:30 #7516

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Funny you brought up the volume issue. I started a post on it last night but ultimately decided not to post it.
Considering the volume I thought the move was a bit disappointing...so still sellers/traders/shorters will to roll the dice.
Actual volume aside, I didnt think it was that unusual as we have seen the PPS rise a bit before earnings calls before. Then it usually falls back. I think they still need to prove the balance sheet issues are finally solved.

I dont know if we get any "real" news on this call or not.
I do agree I would like to move past the Lorem agreement and find someone who CAN develop those markets !!!!

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What to expect on next week's 2nd Q CC 01 Aug 2016 09:56 #7518

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Yes- this is most likely the way the CC is going to play out.

I dug into a (Nov) 2013 CC again, which kind of makes sense, in respect of what is playing out now...the Dave Musket talk (again)

Marc Hedrick: Yeah, well, so let me take a step back. So we have effectively sort of a device-based approval that allows us to sell this system right now to hospitals. We've got the whole infrastructure in Japan to do that. The problem for us right now in Japan is that we have to – customers that want to do studies have to go through a six to 12-month cycle with a group called the Stem Cell Guideline Committee. You have to do one take and then you apply for your approval, you get your approval and you can treat a certain number of patients and then you can come back and expand that. It's a very inefficient, laborious, time-consuming system. This new legislation will overturn that and then allow doctors to buy the technology and use it without going through the current laborious one-year timeframe. It may even just be a one-day registration. So it can cut our sales cycle time from a year to a day. That could be impactful right away and that's why I'm saying it could have some immediate impact as soon as they overturn that.


So, this is most likely how the clinic got their approval- they applied -based on the Class 1 approval for Celution to do studies on OA in their clinic, which turned out well and now received their DEVICE APPROVAL. Of course it would be nice to know, how many more clinics are doing these type of studies and on which applications.... maybe Herr Hedrick will FINALLY let us in on what is going on and is a bit more specific?

The second thing that you really mentioned is, okay, we've got nine or so studies going on, can we take those and convert those into approvals by either taking that data or adding a few more patients and getting formal approval and begin to market it although without reimbursement for that and then set up post-market surveillance studies based on that and then get reimbursement later. And the answer is we absolutely have that as part of our strategy. And if you look at MHLW, the Ministry of Economics and Transport on data, they think that this legislation will cut clinical trial costs in regenerative medicine down by 30%. We probably see more because we hope we're going to be on the lower tier.


So- there WERE NINE studies ongoing which could have been molded in application approval with reimbursement - the drug route so to speak. That would be nice to know- what they were and where they are almost 3 years later. :yep:

The last Hedrick statement was really interesting:

And then in the background, we have things that are going on irrespective of this new law, for example, as you know, we have a urology trial that's going, it's multi-center led by Nagoya, which would be geared towards not just early approval, but approval and reimbursement. And so, we're still moving forward on a pathway and we'll talk more about over the next quarter or two to have our own approved and reimbursed technology for specific indications in Japan outside of whatever benefit the new law may have



We are now 11 quarters after this statement, so we really passed his "next quarter or two" to talk about them. Maybe after 12 quarters ...Mr. Hedrick finally pulls his pants down?

Any bets that he will? :grin:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

What to expect on next week's 2nd Q CC 01 Aug 2016 11:58 #7519

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***Maybe after 12 quarters ...Mr. Hedrick finally pulls his pants down?***
Let's hope so fas!

d9

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What to expect on next week's 2nd Q CC 02 Aug 2016 03:07 #7520

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d9dozrman wrote: ***Maybe after 12 quarters ...Mr. Hedrick finally pulls his pants down?***
Let's hope so fas!

d9


Some actions from the past, really SHOULD make you think. The -for me- sensational success of the Rights Offering where half the OS shares signed up and doubled up, despite the prevailing extremely negative sentiment, for instance. I assure you, that negativity (rightly so) was not only on this Board here.

There are folks that know "a bit" more- and surely ProMed customers and others will be well served with information.

Another action was the Nasdaq meeting in January. Nasdaq charged only 10K for that- I assure you the Agency who did the presentations at the meeting charged a "little bit more" than that. I wish I was the mouse hiding behind the wall in that room. But anyway- birds in the sky are different than the ones captured in the cage... :grin: For that reason, nasdaq decided how they did.

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

What to expect on next week's 2nd Q CC 02 Aug 2016 10:06 #7521

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In the past, CYTX issued a lot of PRs before Q CC and the PPS would go up. Then, came bad news and the PPS went down sharply.

Would things be different from now on?

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What to expect on next week's 2nd Q CC 02 Aug 2016 11:20 #7522

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i hope for you they won't disappoint again because we are already at +/- lowest share price EVER..
like always the CC will tell a lot of nice stories but numbers will be bad again...
back in 2000 ,everybody was willing to invest and wait 10 years so that Cytx could become a world player...
now we are 16 years later and we are at lowest share price ever...how ironic...and yes FAS was already investing in Cytx before 2000...he must have a tremendous energy/positivism to still pump this stock when you have actually lost almost everything ...
and to those that dream,this CC will be like the past 100 conference calls..a lot of promises and missed numbers...
i even miss Chris C. ,he was the biggest fan of CYTX,he had also a lot of promises but with him our share price was 20 x higher...since hedrick took over,cytx collapsed...

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What to expect on next week's 2nd Q CC 02 Aug 2016 12:20 #7523

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dis
>>>i even miss Chris C. ,he was the biggest fan of CYTX,he had also a lot of promises but with him our share price was 20 x higher...since hedrick took over,cytx collapsed<<<

Your memory is short.
While Hedrick is no saint he spent much of his time as CEO cleaning up the Calhoun/Saad/Dean mess.
Huge sums of money were wasted w/o regard. Company direction seemed to change almost every 6 months and it was Calhoun and Saad that strangled the company with debt !!!! CC was a huge fan of CC and the lifestyle Cytori brought him.
Otherwise, I can agree that revenues will again stink and we will hear plenty of story telling with no assurance that they will come to pass. No one is holding for 2016 anyway. We hope some questions begin to get answered in 2017 and by that I mean sales revenue worth mentioning. The unklnown list is still longer than the known list and Thursday's call very unlikely to change that. We may have to wait for 2018 and beyond for that aspect to change.

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