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TOPIC: Low float now so what's the company worth?

Low float now so what's the company worth? 21 Jul 2016 20:20 #7447

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So many bios being purchased by big pharma lately. Niche drugs, small markets compared to Cytori. Some even being purchased in p2 trials.

13.3 mm adjust share count, right?

We get FDA approval in 2017, maybe even BARDA too...what's this company worth to you all for a buyout price?

$750 million $2billion ? $5 billion ? $10billion?

$750 mm is not out of the realm of reality here considering the deals being minted. What's that, like $50+ per share? I'd take it.

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Low float now so what's the company worth? 22 Jul 2016 02:19 #7448

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$750 mln is a conservative approach, taking into account that they already burned around $500 mln over time. In case FDA approves (which is my last Resort of hope as i am down 70%).

$50+ is indeed not taken out of the blue considering the value of target markets (dentists, Scleroderma, Ostearthritis, etc.) I am not an expert in the stem cell sector, but the data FAS and others here in this Forum are providing i cannot understand that no aqcuisition from big pharma is targeting them. Although the BOD seems to be not the best in their efforts the Technology cannot be unseen.
Patience is not my best skill, but in this case i will wait and the sector is picking up and gets attention after being slaughtered.

Everything above $750 mln will be highly appreciated, but unfortunately only speculation. Wait and see... :bye:

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Low float now so what's the company worth? 22 Jul 2016 05:17 #7449

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With big pharma cos like Merck spending upwards of $750mm for p2 bio companies that have such a niche customer base (link: www.marketwatch.com/story/merck-to-purchase-biotech-afferent-for-at-least-500-million-2016-06-09?mod=MW_story_latest_news ) , I'm starting to feel hope that with our new low float, the implications of scleroderma FDA approval and BARDA approval increase the likelihood of possible big pharma partner / buyout in the $750mm range. I personally think the Cytori tech is worth billions - BUT ONLY IN THE HANDS OF A BUSINESS SAVVY BOARD.

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Low float now so what's the company worth? 22 Jul 2016 05:24 #7450

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CalhounDoppelganger wrote: So many bios being purchased by big pharma lately. Niche drugs, small markets compared to Cytori. Some even being purchased in p2 trials.

13.3 mm adjust share count, right?

We get FDA approval in 2017, maybe even BARDA too...what's this company worth to you all for a buyout price?

$750 million $2billion ? $5 billion ? $10billion?

$750 mm is not out of the realm of reality here considering the deals being minted. What's that, like $50+ per share? I'd take it.


13.3 was right before the Rights Offering- the 10Q had 13.333.310 to be exact.

The RO added 17100.000/2.55= 6.7 Mio shares+ half =3.35 Mio warrants to become shares in the next 2.5 years. So 20 Mio is a good number now- and 24 a good number in 2018 etc

Apparently there are many views on Cytori- the market view - i.e. the present value of all future events is seen at 41 Mio. That includes views of bankruptcy and views of FDA approval as you indicated. This is all emotion and sentiment and for me not a good yardstick to answer a question which to some extent is measurable. Management decisions are made on future projections, which Cytori did, but we (that is DOV) also did.

We have our official Raccoon Lodge Financial Forecast- courtesy of DOV- which gives an excellent indication of the future value of the joint and the best estimate since a lot of brainpower and research has gone into the thing. From my own eternal optimistic view- it is very conservative, since events like the limited approval for OA, can be repeated anytime. There is a lot we do not know. :yep:

Again DOV´s sheet: Official Raccoon Lodge FC- 4/5 years forward

The Net Income Line can be taken as cash flow, since there are hardly non-cash elements in the Cytori business, like depreciation and amortization. Only the warrant accounting will bother us again when looking at actual numbers going forward.

Anyway- just assuming that DOV´s conservative approach is the right thing- the questions can also be posed-

1. what discount factor is appropriate for the business as we know it now? In simple words - what (interest) factor should be used to discount future cash flows to PRESENT value? 0% as with German treasuries (you have to pay 100,50 Euro nowadays to get exactly 100 Euro back in 10 years time ( :cool: ) ? 12-15% as the firm´s cost of capital of Cytori was with the Oxford loan? or 30%- the number anal-cowboys like Kolbert take, just to de-risk high assumed cash flows????

2. the only other element required is the Price Earnings ratio for a growth Company- in order to provide a substantiated answer on what Cytori could be worth- now or in a few years as a potential take-over target. The market allows often 80-100 PE ratio´s for proven models and goes down 5-10 PE for Alcoa and Caterpillar etc. So what is right for Cytori?

If folks want to answer those questions in the weekend- I can make a spreadsheet with some logical answers. Will not join the discussion since I have my annual biking/triking week-end, which includes the programmed headaches. :grin:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Low float now so what's the company worth? 22 Jul 2016 08:27 #7451

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I have to disagree that DOV's spreadsheet is conservative.
We simply dont know what acceptance rates will be or how quickly they will ramp.
Big numbers have been thrown around in the past for various geographic regions...Okyanos a prime example.
I believe a large discount rate is appropriate at this time.

On a side note, negative bond rates mean little to Central Banks who buy them and their is always the capital appreciation possibility that even more negative rates could bring. Individuals or institutions who buy a bond with a negative yield may simply be betting that they will be able to flip that bond down the road at a better price. Who would have thought we would be even discussing negative yields in so many places in the world ?

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Low float now so what's the company worth? 23 Jul 2016 07:07 #7452

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To Hedge and Fas,

Just to clarify once again, my spreadsheet is not meant to be conservative or outlandish. Revenues are based on the number of patients treated for a given therapy multiplied by the revenue per patient. In almost every case, the revenue per patient was derived from the company's public statements. Those that were not are insignificant. As far as the number of patients treated, that is where my guesswork can be questioned. In the case of Scleroderma, outside of the MAP with IDIS, the number of patients treated are after insurance reimbursement has been granted. When it gets granted is a variable for sure, but I have used company estimates for that. Therefore, I do not think it is correct to compare that scenario to Okyanos. I have not made any changes to the spreadsheet based on the Japanese approval to treat patients at the Tokyo OA Clinic as that growth was already baked into the revenues from Japan.

My estimates for patients treated with insurance reimbursement for scleroderma are based on treating 3 patients per week with each treatment taking 3 hours total. The other 31 hours of the week at the clinic is filled with paperwork and patient consulting. That is a very slow work flow, in my opinion.

Fas, I will send you an updated spreadsheet after the August 3rd CC. I have adjusted the "all-in" share count to 23,367,898 for year ending 2016 and I have a loss of $.86 per share. I doubt much will be learned from the CC in terms of revenue projections. IDIS has not treated the first patient yet in any country and the Tokyo OA Clinic just got approval on June 24th. I do expect the company to update us on Lorem Vascular and the status of the licensing agreement.

On another topic, the stock is trading as if the ACT-OA data is going to be very disappointing and that no partnership will emerge. If the market is correct, it will be the first trial anywhere with poor results in this indication. The following trial results (old news) did not have a placebo group to complicate the numbers, but the results speak for themselves: (I should add the psychological effect is included in these results so ACT-OA and this open label trial are not apples to apples).

STROMAL VASCULAR FRACTION CELLS FOR THERAPY OF 275 PATIENTS WITH OSTEOARTHRITIS
Presenter: Jaroslav Michalek, MD, PhD
Authors: Michalek J, Kristkova Z, Skopalik J,
Cibulka M, Holek M, Moster R
Cellthera Ltd
Therapy of osteoarthritis relies on non-steroid analgesics, chondroprotectives and in late stages total joint replacement is considered a standard of care. We performed a pilot study using novel stem cell therapy approach that was performed during one surgical procedure. It relies on abdominal lipoaspiration and processing of connective tissue to stromal vascular fraction (SVF) cells that typically contain relatively large amounts of mesenchymal stromal and stem cells. SVF cells are injected immediately to the target joint or to the connective tissue of the target joint. Since 2011, total of 275 patients have been recruited and followed for up to 24 months to demonstrate the therapeutical potential of freshly isolated SVF cells. At the same time, one to four joints (knees and hips) were injected with SVF cells per patient. A total number of 433 joints were treated. Semiquantitative clinical scale evaluation and non-steroid analgesics dependence was used as measurement of the clinical effect, all patients were diagnosed with stage II-IV osteoarthritis using X-ray and ultrasound, in some cases MRI was also performed to monitor the changes before and after stem cell therapy. After 3 months from SVF therapy, at least 50% clinical improvement was recognized in 95%, at least 75% clinical improvement in 68%, and complete remission in 54% of patients, respectively. Within 1-2 weeks from SVF therapy 85% of patients were off the non-steroid analgesics and remain such for at least 6 months. No serious side effects, infection or cancer was associated with SVF cell therapy. In conclusion, here we report a novel and promising therapeutical approach that is safe, cost effective, and relying only on autologous cells.
This work was supported in part by the International Consortium for Cell Therapy and Immunotherapy ( www.iccti.eu ) and Czech Ministry of Education Grant No.

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Low float now so what's the company worth? 23 Jul 2016 19:47 #7453

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Hi DOV

So you cant be considering company guidance as a serious indication...they have been wrong at every turn. Therefore, the early Okyanos pump by the optimistic is a valid comparison as any other until we see a true adoption rate emerge. Just my opinion anyway.

I also now believe that ACT OA results have a high hurdle....let alone the often poor fashion that results are communicated to the masses. As I stated before, that indication came out of my estimates until a more reliable path forward is indicated.

IDIS a mystery on what they can attract.

Balance sheet....horrible as ever.

The only thing proven in the last 6 months is CYTX can still raise money at horrible valuations !!!!! :bang: :bash: :puke:

If we get a "nothing" quarter where does the PPS go ?
If ACT OA disappoints, where does the PPS go ?
I think we are trading where we are for obvious reasons. :cry:
We desperately need a win !!!

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Low float now so what's the company worth? 24 Jul 2016 09:58 #7454

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Hedge,

That is the difference between us, I do trust Tiago's guidance. He is very cautious and honest. This is not the Calhoun days where wild promises fell through every time. If I did not believe the guidance and that the trial results we have seen will yield regulatory approvals, I would be completely out of the stock.

The press release about the 24 week partial unblinding of the ACT-OA data made us all very skeptical about the trial. With less than a month until the 48 week OA results (including MRI data) is released, the stock is trading near its all-time low. There is no optimism at all. The only positive thing that I have heard from Marc or Tiago is that the patients that have been treated in Japan for knee OA have all had very positive results even after the placebo effect had worn off. The market is pricing the worst case scenario for everything Cytori is doing. I think that is a mistake.

Is anyone aware of a trial using Cytori's Celution system that was a complete failure?

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Low float now so what's the company worth? 24 Jul 2016 11:17 #7455

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Dov,
In terms of meaningful results, that have netted a partnership all trials have been a failure. The company has been a complete failure. Your setting the bar very low so you must define complete. Tiago completely, honest I at one point thought so, now not so much. Cytori is a company run by con men and promoted by con men. Unfortunately it was a very expensive lesson to learn. As far as Lorem, they are dead and gone. Cytori , modus operandi is to just st not talk about failures with the hope nobody brings it up again. :puke: Trying to put this crap behind me and recover.

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Low float now so what's the company worth? 24 Jul 2016 12:46 #7456

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Rothco,

You should sell all of your shares. That is the only way you can put this nightmare behind you.

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Low float now so what's the company worth? 24 Jul 2016 19:33 #7457

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Just to be clear, I like what Tiago has done so far but he can make all the estimates he wants, there just isn't a proven road map yet for him to base it on.


*** Is anyone aware of a trial using Cytori's Celution system that was a complete failure? ***

So I will change your final question slightly ....Is anyone aware of any autologous stem cell company with a large sales ramp with either a self pay, or insurance reimbursement model that we can base near term, future projections of sales, for Cytori ?

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Low float now so what's the company worth? 25 Jul 2016 07:36 #7460

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Somebody has to go first, The only model there is to emulate is the drug industry. At one end of the spectrum, there is Cytori with no valuation being placed on its therapies. At the other end, if there were a drug that could produce the same results as Cytori's therapies, they would be worth tens of billions of dollars. I don't think anyone doubts that statement. The collective wisdom of the market is currently not willing to bet the autologous stem cell business model will be adopted. This is a fact in spite of the evidence to the contrary. Dr. Brian Cole performed three knee OA procedures in one day with no issues. My brother-in-law is a colleague of Dr Cole and the comment that says it all is: "if that is what we need to do to get the cells, that is what we will do. The patient always comes first."

There is such an enormous difference in the valuation of autologous stem cell therapies and the drug industry's products and that is what makes Cytori such a compelling investment. The stem cell safety profile is proving itself to be many times safer than biologics and the results are proving to be multiples better. In the cases of Scleroderma, ED, fistula, the biologics failed to work, but Cytori's cell therapy showed "remarkable" results. "Is proving itself" is not quite equal to "has proven itself", but I think Marc's letter today suggests progress is being made on the regulatory front.
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Low float now so what's the company worth? 25 Jul 2016 08:02 #7461

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HI DOV,

thanks for your statement. I was thinking the same regarding the letter today. This Kind of PR will not be released when they do not have some kind of confidence of what is going to come. It may also explain why Cugat´s results are not published yet. Obviously, all these data are used and digested on the regulatory front as well (which i was not Aware of.

As safety is the foremost important issue, is there a Chance that they could get a fast track approval (from FDA after September)? Why not starting this alternative Treatment when there is nothing else out there?

That would explain as well who was interested and invested 17mln $ for the capital raise (my understanding is that the retail Investors were definetely not the ones who put there Money in: except FAS).

Hopefully this is not any Kind of Fluff PR, which is on the first glance, as FAS stated , that there is no specific tangible Information. More a summary of what is going on.
Wait and see... :bye:

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Low float now so what's the company worth? 25 Jul 2016 08:19 #7463

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DOV
To wrap this up and apply it to the thread topic I simply think I approach the issue from the more conservative standpoint.
There are simply unknowns in which (imo) require a higher discount to valuation until a better model for the future can be observed and applied.

sahin
Cytori had stated they would not seek fast track for scleroderma in the USA. Or was it the orphan indication? Anyway, I will be happy with a fair FDA review.
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Low float now so what's the company worth? 25 Jul 2016 08:44 #7467

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sahin wrote: As safety is the foremost important issue, is there a Chance that they could get a fast track approval (from FDA after September)? Why not starting this alternative Treatment when there is nothing else out there?


Cytori has stated in the past that their device PMA path of FDA approval is more efficient i.e. faster as compared to fast track = orphan designation, which was the reason that they did NOT. apply for orphan designation for scleroderma in the US although it was rewarded in Europe. I conclude from that - that it is MUCH more efficient compared to the drug regulatory pathway i.e IND.

Obviously OA will be PMA too- that is why it only costs roughly 20 Mio. :whistle:
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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Low float now so what's the company worth? 25 Jul 2016 09:55 #7468

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Dov, I have $250,000 + dollars of worthless shares that have been diluted to the hilt and most likely will be hit again. No point to sell at this point as a good % was in my SEP and can't be written off, but I appreciate your advice. Wish your advise would have been to never buy in the first place . Unfortunately that ship has sailed and I was introduced to this POS by our mutual friend RZ who has also been financially hurt by his investment. Not your fault, just my feeling that it is irresponsible to continue to push, especially as if I am correct you passed on the Last Rites issue. Regardless of results mediocre, poor or promising Cytori has only succeeded is continuing to raise capital at the expense of shareholders for the purpose of continuing to receive undeserved salaries, bonuses and options, and that includes Tiago, and to put the company in the hands of loan sharks. I will keep my shares as necessary to own to sue, which I promise I will do should the company ever get on sound financial footing as to be able to reimburse attorneys who will not work for free. :puke: :evil: :bang: Until that time I will be the voice of reason and do my best to protect any unsuspecting hens from the foxes in the hen house.

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Low float now so what's the company worth? 26 Jul 2016 07:34 #7479

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"...that the patients that have been treated in Japan for knee OA have all had very positive results even after the placebo effect had worn off."

Is there any evidence that the placebo effect wears off any quicker than a real therapy? I am of the belief that the open label studies on knee OA are pretty worthless in trying to predict the likelihood of an FDA approval path. Especially when comparing different methods andcell counts. A large study out of Switzerland showed that Meniscus surgery of the knee was no better than fake surgery after one year. The placebo effect may be responsible for a significant number of improvements in the Ortho field, IMHO.
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Low float now so what's the company worth? 26 Jul 2016 08:12 #7482

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I agree....only the controlled studies will matter.

I believe ACT OA results have real risk to the final result. Although one cant fake a MRI result on cartilage growth, the final end point is pain while walking.

We will know soon.

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Low float now so what's the company worth? 27 Jul 2016 06:41 #7491

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Tiago did tell me the primary end point of "pain on walking" a 50 foot test would not be chosen as the end point in the future.

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Low float now so what's the company worth? 27 Jul 2016 08:13 #7497

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Thanks DOV

I really think that kinda proves my risk point though....primary could fail but MRI may show decent result.
This leads to poor headline risk.
It comes more down to how motivated the placebo effect group is vs concrete scientific data...reminds me of the UK breast data questionaire

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