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Japan 20 Oct 2017 11:15 #10310

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The slide prospectus is pretty damn good with good information. As I mentioned before especially the progress in Japan is pretty astonishing (to me)

Highlight on the (future) potential reimbursement for therapies front is the below slide- although still TBD- the paper which Rongside discovered in June-

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File Name: 2017-LiverKanazawaKeneko.pdf
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seems to get a follow up- although the paper said the 4 patients treated were followed for "one month" - I guess they were followed a while longer, enough for the AMED (link - HERE to agree to a partial funding of a liver cirrhosis trial.

I presume Kaneko at Kanazawa will be involved again and will wait with interest for further developments :grin:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Japan 20 Oct 2017 11:42 #10311

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FAS and Rodney

We are finally on the same page!

Great!

I think something is being cooked. We need time to get a good pot of rice.

Several days before the last spike, there was a lot of buying at 36 and now at 46. A lot of similarity.

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Japan 20 Oct 2017 15:16 #10312

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Franshei, the stock traded as high as .54 today (and the VWAP was just over .50 for the day), but I was hoping for a higher close than .50 - nevertheless, it is above HF's technical price of .49 - let's see what next week brings!

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Japan 20 Oct 2017 18:48 #10313

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Rodney

I was not at home most of today.

From what I can gather, the stock was down early in the morning. Then, it is important to note that almost 2.2. million shares changed hands at 50 cents, following by more buying to push the PPS to 54 cents. As usual, some people took profit on this runup.

Why important for the sudden uptake in large volume at 50 cents? In my opinion, someone might have bought to hold for some good reasons. Maybe it is the result of the latest corporate slide show and Hedrick's presentation somewhere.

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Japan 21 Oct 2017 09:20 #10314

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So while the slides had some new and interesting info it really failed to excite me. Again the realities are with a base of nearly 77 installed machines we generate a million a Q +/- in sales.
Reimbursement still years out of which the patient still must pay 30% out of pocket in Japan.
Market size still gives no indication of what can be captured or the rate of that capture.
Still need years worth of funding !!!!!!!!

No talk of the TBA liver cirrhosis indication ????
US trial !!!
Sometime in the next 3-9 months ???
Now this may be a partnership indication hint...can you say long time fence sitter Astellas ?

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Japan 22 Oct 2017 04:54 #10315

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myownhedgefund wrote: So while the slides had some new and interesting info it really failed to excite me. Again the realities are with a base of nearly 77 installed machines we generate a million a Q +/- in sales.
Reimbursement still years out of which the patient still must pay 30% out of pocket in Japan.
Market size still gives no indication of what can be captured or the rate of that capture.
Still need years worth of funding !!!!!!!!

No talk of the TBA liver cirrhosis indication ????
US trial !!!
Sometime in the next 3-9 months ???
Now this may be a partnership indication hint...can you say long time fence sitter Astellas ?


The devil´s advocate in these times is always good, since that has so far always been the harsh reality.

However - the Japan slide you are referring to below:



Reminds me of "Smelling the inflection point" of 2009. Remember the slide from Saad and other wishful thinking?



Consider the following:

- with Europe we are probably getting close to that hundred.

- in the third quarter I presume quite a few installs of the CTX2 have been made.

- I see a lot of private hospitals and clinics which obviously are more profit driven, compared to the university hospitals where most of the Celutions traditionally were installed.

-we do not need 30 Mio revenues any longer for break-even. 20 Mio will do with a cash burn of 1 Mio a month.

- we still do not know what is meant with 5 Mio net proceeds in the Oxford deal- maybe net revenues after all ???????

The Japanese are pro- regenerative medicine and are well-off. Together with a decent performance of the Dutch MAP partner, promotions by clinics, I am starting to smell something again.

Third quarter results and call will reveal more I presume.
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Japan 22 Oct 2017 09:34 #10316

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Fas, based on your last post, doesn't it make more sense for CYTX to hold off on the RO for as long as possible so that pricing may be improved substantially (or that a potential partner may eliminate the need for the RO in total)?

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Japan 22 Oct 2017 11:12 #10317

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rodney.strongg wrote: Fas, based on your last post, doesn't it make more sense for CYTX to hold off on the RO for as long as possible so that pricing may be improved substantially (or that a potential partner may eliminate the need for the RO in total)?


No - absolutely not.

A good captain of a ship sailing on Wallstreet, always takes care of potential money issues- Cytori has been highly negligent of that in the past, with obvious results. :cry:

on top of that there are a lot of variables-

- achieving that 5 Mio for Oxford.

- probably a lot of rather inactive Celution installs

- timing of news. see below



The RO price can be adjusted (warrant not) so if some of these news "prospects" come true before decision time (and I would add good Q3 revenues as a potential other one), the dilution might become less catastrophic as it looks right now. If not- Sabby et al will move the price down as usual, maybe to 15-20 cents or so.
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Japan 22 Oct 2017 12:53 #10318

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Fas, I disagree with your last post - RO s/b pushed back as far as possible - the dilution is ridiculous - I actually think that coming news on results may reveal that a current buy at .50 will prove very profitable in the future and even more so if we can buy more time on the RO.

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Japan 22 Oct 2017 14:39 #10319

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rodney.strongg wrote: Fas, I disagree with your last post - RO s/b pushed back as far as possible - the dilution is ridiculous - I actually think that coming news on results may reveal that a current buy at .50 will prove very profitable in the future and even more so if we can buy more time on the RO.


You may be right - you maybe wrong- who knows?

fact is- they waited a very long time after the initial filing to bring out the prospectus and terms. In the mean time the Oxford deal had to be made.

As usual - time will tell.

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Japan 22 Oct 2017 21:06 #10320

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Fas
I believe the sales tell the story.
Celution sales may have slowed for the CTX2 but consumable ramp for the installed base still slowed.
For such small numbers it still shows to me that each and every patient will be hard fought for in the foreseeable future.

No one commented on the liver indication trial ? I found that far more interesting that some of what franshei has been suggesting in Japan. (no offense franshei :) )

RS
You just have to accept the dilution that is going to occur.
It will be painful and repeated. CYTX will have over 100 million shares outstanding again BEFORE the decade is out !!!

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Japan 23 Oct 2017 04:51 #10321

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myownhedgefund wrote:
RS
You just have to accept the dilution that is going to occur.
It will be painful and repeated. CYTX will have over 100 million shares outstanding again BEFORE the decade is out !!!


I guess if HF is saying 100 million shares before 2020, then he is not expecting a RS!

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Japan 23 Oct 2017 08:54 #10323

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myownhedgefund wrote: Fas
I believe the sales tell the story.
Celution sales may have slowed for the CTX2 but consumable ramp for the installed base still slowed.
For such small numbers it still shows to me that each and every patient will be hard fought for in the foreseeable future.

No one commented on the liver indication trial ?


Hedge- we simply do not know yet. The CTX2 "ready" message was in the summer- now, we will find out at the 3Q call what is reality. So far we have always- that is since 2008 been disappointed- maybe this is the first time that we are not?

Anyway- I have been writing about liver often enough and still have Astellas on my mind. Although I now think, that would more likely based on less "copyable" nano tech. Its clear that ANDRESU and what follows require a partner in Japan, otherwise its going nowhere.
I am just happy, that after several niche stuff, that a major app is also in the pipeline and not costing anything.

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Japan 23 Oct 2017 10:08 #10324

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Agree on the Q3 call
Average est. $2.5 million expected.

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Japan 23 Oct 2017 10:30 #10326

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HF, you never responded to my post just above Fas' post re your number of 100 million shares to be o/s??

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Japan 23 Oct 2017 11:11 #10327

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myownhedgefund wrote: Agree on the Q3 call
Average est. $2.5 million expected.


Is that with or without BARDA?

We need product revenues as key number. If you mean product revenues- 2,5 would also be my tip - repeat in Q4 and we have 5 Mio "net proceeds" as of year-end ??????????????????????????????

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Japan 23 Oct 2017 11:26 #10328

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Fas
Well since they are analyst numbers we cant be completely sure but the $2.5 million SHOULD represent actual sales.
Now the question is do sales = proceeds or do net profits = proceeds ?

RS
***I guess if HF is saying 100 million shares before 2020, then he is not expecting a RS! ***
To me, this reads as a statement, not a question.
I believe my original statement was clear enough.

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Japan 23 Oct 2017 11:31 #10329

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Fas, I am now retired, but was a CPA and CFO and had a long career in the financial and accounting profession, and the more I think about it, the more that I am certain that the reference to "5 million of net proceeds" cannot refer to product revenues!

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Japan 23 Oct 2017 13:15 #10330

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HF, are you expecting 100 million shares by 2020 if CYTX has a RS and do you believe that we will have a RS before2020?

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