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Cytori´s Technology- Celution, IP etc etc
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TOPIC: Great Expectations

Great Expectations 30 Oct 2017 18:02 #10384

  • rongside
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“I loved her against reason, against promise, against peace, against hope, against happiness, against all discouragement that could be.”
― Charles Dickens, Great Expectations

“Ask no questions, and you'll be told no lies.”
― Charles Dickens, Great Expectations

“Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There's no better rule.”
― Charles Dickens, Great Expectations

I had Great Expectations for Cytori: In truth I fell in love with the idea of the stock and have had my heart broken....... not to mention my bank balance.

I will not give them any more money even though I have no doubt concerning the efficacy of ADRC and the quality of the technology. I will hold what I have, and hope against reason.

They have made a series of errors that while understandable as single incidents, have in their sum created a nightmare scenario where they are not truly masters of their own company. Whether by design/greed or bad luck they have fallen into the hands of the shylocks that ''fund'' biotechs and will never break free unless they are prepared to leave or give up power (such that it is). They go from one capital raising exercise to the next, being given crumbs until they are too weak to think properly....... of course the regular paycheck certainly eases the pain:bash:

The fact is that this is a technology with multiple applications that can easily be replicated, and that is the reason BB/BP have not adopted it, IMO.

Management had expectations of high margins and premium pricing. This was never likely given that essenially the same product injected into the face to smoothen wrinkles could also be applied in indications as diverse as scleroderma, OA, SUI, heart disease, fistula etc etc. These expectations clouded their judgement and made the conclusion of a deal impossible.

Let us hope that the technology will eventually be widely dispursed and that government funding agencies can take this technology under their wing to expedite it's adoption. Perhaps our benefit/profit will be access to the therapeutic benefit of our own cells, it is unlikely to come from share price appreciation......... cerainly for us old soon to be discarded lovers.

CAPITULATION :bye:

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Great Expectations 30 Oct 2017 20:22 #10386

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rongside wrote: “I loved her against reason, against promise, against peace, against hope, against happiness, against all discouragement that could be.”
― Charles Dickens, Great Expectations

“Ask no questions, and you'll be told no lies.”
― Charles Dickens, Great Expectations

“Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There's no better rule.”
― Charles Dickens, Great Expectations

I had Great Expectations for Cytori: In truth I fell in love with the idea of the stock and have had my heart broken....... not to mention my bank balance.

I will not give them any more money even though I have no doubt concerning the efficacy of ADRC and the quality of the technology. I will hold what I have, and hope against reason.

They have made a series of errors that while understandable as single incidents, have in their sum created a nightmare scenario where they are not truly masters of their own company. Whether by design/greed or bad luck they have fallen into the hands of the shylocks that ''fund'' biotechs and will never break free unless they are prepared to leave or give up power (such that it is). They go from one capital raising exercise to the next, being given crumbs until they are too weak to think properly....... of course the regular paycheck certainly eases the pain:bash:

The fact is that this is a technology with multiple applications that can easily be replicated, and that is the reason BB/BP have not adopted it, IMO.

Management had expectations of high margins and premium pricing. This was never likely given that essenially the same product injected into the face to smoothen wrinkles could also be applied in indications as diverse as scleroderma, OA, SUI, heart disease, fistula etc etc. These expectations clouded their judgement and made the conclusion of a deal impossible.

Let us hope that the technology will eventually be widely dispursed and that government funding agencies can take this technology under their wing to expedite it's adoption. Perhaps our benefit/profit will be access to the therapeutic benefit of our own cells, it is unlikely to come from share price appreciation......... cerainly for us old soon to be discarded lovers.

CAPITULATION :bye:



Rongside, let it never be said that you did not go out with class!

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Great Expectations 01 Nov 2017 14:26 #10397

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rongside wrote:
I had Great Expectations for Cytori: In truth I fell in love with the idea of the stock and have had my heart broken....... not to mention my bank balance.
.

CAPITULATION :bye:


I understand that. Actually in 2000 - the same year I "met" MacroPore, I also invested 100K in a fund which financed The Lord of the Rings Part III filmed on site in New Zealand. That thing will pay out now in November and I have been working relentlessly on my tax returns- since I was a few years behind- and this pay-out will probably change my returns for the past 14 years. Whilst going through those files, I could not resist to glance at the IB statements that were part of the supporting document filed with them.

A very frustrating and agonizing experience- maybe I should buy a Kalasnikov and pay a visit to San Diego or maybe I just should let it be. I do not know.

I think it´s best to stick to the end and have the opportunity to describe to anybody who has an interest, that disruptive technology does not go well with incompetence and personal enrichment.

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Great Expectations 01 Nov 2017 15:36 #10399

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fas wrote:

rongside wrote:


I think it´s best to stick to the end and have the opportunity to describe to anybody who has an interest, that disruptive technology does not go well with incompetence and personal enrichment.


So how does that statement give all those who have huge investments in CYTX any hope going forward unless there is a change in management?????

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Great Expectations 01 Nov 2017 17:06 #10400

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*** I also invested 100K in a fund which financed The Lord of the Rings Part III filmed on site in New Zealand.***

Now isn't that interesting.

Anyway, for me, my reflection on where I went wrong was some time ago.
Leaning from mistakes always makes better investors.
When I first looked at CYTX I passed. It did interest me on the possibilities though so I decided I would keep a eye on it. With so many stocks to look at I would at times completely forget about them so about 5 months later or so I decided to take a small position. This way it would stay front and center. Not long later talk of the banking business expanding faster than anticipated gave hope that financing would be helped along by this "side" business. Of course that small investment was added to at times. Most know the history since that time.
Where I went wrong:
1. Usually I need phase 2 results to catch my interest BEFORE a investment.
2. Management history was weak but it was possible CC could grow into the role and thus I rejected the University of Phoenix comments by early shorters.
2b. Sometimes you learn valuable investment advice in unlikely places. Once, many years ago, I was taken to a horse race track. While not a real fan of horse racing I did learn to bet the jockey, not the horse ! If that doesn't apply to the management of a company you invest in I don't know what does, Even after full realization that, imho, I had bozos on my team I stuck with it hoping the tech would win out. My second mistake.
3. I held on even as the failures added up.

So I knew where I went wrong and finally set the limit of my tolerance. OA failed then the STAR news in July.
Discipline took over and I have been happier ever since despite what little remains.
So I am not trying to encourage anyone with this stock on this reflection but adding to the conversation as food for thought when the next one comes along !
REMEMBER...any money losing biotech...even when all the parameters listed above look good...can go to zero !
Play accordingly.

PS...loved the Dickens quotes rongside

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Great Expectations 02 Nov 2017 07:01 #10401

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rodney.strongg wrote:

fas wrote:
I think it´s best to stick to the end and have the opportunity to describe to anybody who has an interest, that disruptive technology does not go well with incompetence and personal enrichment.


So how does that statement give all those who have huge investments in CYTX any hope going forward unless there is a change in management?????


Rodney- we are not here to give "HOPE", only CYTORI actions and a well laid down pathway to independence of further future highly dilutive financings can create hope. That should happen in the next call, otherwise I will follow Rongside´s lead and submit my capitulation too.

Providing Hope with scenario´s like you did with Astellas smell very badly of pumping in an rather clumsy fashion, which virtually every non-finance person can see through and which I do not recommend you come up with again.

We are not pumper´s or basher´s. Just discussing Cytori and THEIR actions, not ours.

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Great Expectations 02 Nov 2017 08:10 #10403

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With all due respect, the scenario that I provided was not meant as a "pump", but rather as an example of an out-of-the-box possibility that would enable CYTX to have any chance of returning at least a portion of the millions of dollars that have been lost by all of us loyal "followers" - the scenario need not be as I specifically portrayed it, but it surely needs to be out-of-the-box as Franshei has also inferred on occasion - business as usual is not going to cut it - we need dramatic changes imo!

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Great Expectations 02 Nov 2017 10:45 #10405

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Rodney

Under the topic of Dickens Great Expections, I would like to reflect on CYTX's cell therapy.

1. In small studies, all cell therapies (beyond CYTX) seem to work well ( very well indeed, as in many other drug therapies). In these trials, the physicians appear to know the therapies well and select the patients only if they would benefit from the treatment. Actually, the current scleroadec 2 trials (4-5 centers) and the Japanese urinary incontinent trials (4 centers) fall into this category. (Emerson's cardio trials also fall into this category.)

2. In larger studies, as in STAR and in the phase 2 OA trials (19 centers for STAR), patient selection, in my opinion, is not tight, as many physicians (beyond the focus group) may not know the cell therapy well. The study results may not come out as good as expected. I think in order to achieve a meaningful statistical advantages in the coming US phase 3 trials in scleroderma, Hedrick may have to learn from his friends in France and Japan to go slow and be more patient selective.

It is very possible in my mind that the French sclerodec 2, though slow, may be able to get the EU marketing approval much earlier than the US efforts. The same applies in Japan.

3. Under these considerations, Karestem's STYLE alopecia trials (according to what I read online) will be a successful phase 2 study (small study taking slow pace). I think Karestem does not have to a broad phase 3 study in a broader patient group, as long as the phase 2 data is useful for overseas market and there is a valid FDA approval protocol to treat US patients who are willing to pay ($ 8000 as it is now). Big studies may fail (except in very niche disease type where both the physicians and the patient selction are in sync.)

4. I think VCEL's decision not to proceed with a broader phase 3 trial in their cardio study and settling with just the phase 2 data may have a good reason.

5. If my thinking not too far off, I would speculate that many big phase 3 trials being undertaken by several stem cells companies may face difficult times. If so, CYTX may have learned from the past to be smarter in the future. The CYTX story is not dead yet.

In my past experiences, if a therapy works or marginally works, the study outcome is dictated by the patient selection. Gallium nitrate and etoposide were initially approved by the FDA based on this kind of strategy.

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Great Expectations 02 Nov 2017 11:15 #10406

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If my thinking is not too far off, what Hedrick and Rickey have in mind is time. They may not let the control,of the company pass to someone else presently. Still, I think Japan CYTX KK is set up for some kind of partnership and the AZA venture (ATI 0918) may bring in necessary revenue.

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