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TOPIC: Watch out for waterfall drop

Watch out for waterfall drop 11 Mar 2015 12:27 #3737

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This drop was fast, and usually has two legs... I hope it doesn't happen today, for the $1 rule, but if it does happen in the next few days, I would let them go sideways for a few days (need to do calculation before knowing the real bottom)....


Good luck!
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Watch out for waterfall drop 11 Mar 2015 13:40 #3739

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Good luck is right! A 25% trading range today. So much bullshit in cyberspace I feel like I am stuck in a chicken yard. This company is not for the faint of heart. Certainly trying to break a buck today. Who knows what tomorrow' s report says. They already characterized it as dismal. How bad can it be? :bash:

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Watch out for waterfall drop 11 Mar 2015 14:08 #3740

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There are many technicians here and they make good predictions. I am no technician, but I am throwing in my thinking.

1. This drop from 1.47 is prelude to the Q earning tomorrow. Just look at GERN and many others including OSIR, as well as CYTX's past, they all drop around earning time. CYTX may not be exception.

2. If we are now in a new trading range (before going up to meet $2 or dropping to fill the 2 gaps below $1), between $1.50 and $ 1, then there is another leg to drop in the next day or so.

3. Hope Hedrick and Girao have something new positives tomorrow, otherwise the shorties may enjoy their days in the sun again. I hope not this time (Calhoun has been a favorite target for the shorties).

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Watch out for waterfall drop 11 Mar 2015 14:13 #3741

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Fatboy

What important financial criteria remains unanswered???



The cash burn with 4.9 Mio in Q4 is below "guidance" of approx. 2.25 per month. I think this number is excellent.

The shares OS of 108 Mio tells me- some folks are leaning back and sitting on their preferred stock. But I do not know why.




The revenues are OK -IMO- in view of CTX2 on its way and Celution 800 an overkill going forward in all aspects of the business.

The guidance is none. The 5-8 product revenue should come from China approval and Okyanos alone. I was amazed reading that Kolbert agrees that revenue is NOT the issue at present. I have been saying that the past 5 years and suddenly Hedrick and Tiago are telling that to analysts too.

That does not make me pad my shoulder really, but magnifies the incompetence of past management.
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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Watch out for waterfall drop 11 Mar 2015 14:19 #3742

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*** They already characterized it as dismal. How bad can it be? :bash:***

I expect it to be bad as ever numbers wise, however with this recent cornucopia of news blurbs, I would like to think they perhaps they could shake one more out of the basket :grin:
What better way to temper what we know is coming from the past Q, than to perhaps announce a partner deal of some sort? I'm not holding my breath here, but I can dream can't I? :winky:

d9

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Watch out for waterfall drop 11 Mar 2015 14:37 #3744

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relax 2$ is coming :yep:

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holdi

Watch out for waterfall drop 11 Mar 2015 14:40 #3745

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Fas,
I agree. What they "pre announced" seemed honest and on the right track. The investment community seemed to like it and the stock ran up nicely. If that is what is presented tomorrow without any surprises then I see continued positives. Hopefully there is some good news regarding scleroderma, and or BARDA to increase the optimism going forward. Staying solidly over a buck today with considerable pressure is a good sign. I still feel we are prone to manipulation though so the pps will remain volatile until the financial issues are deemed under control. That can only come with a significant ramp in consumable purchases due to BARDA deployment, China breakthroughs, Okyanos etc or the introduction of a serious partner with deep pockets and belief in the potential of the science. Same old same old. But at least we are not at thirty seven cents! :winky:

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Watch out for waterfall drop 11 Mar 2015 15:41 #3746

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What they "pre announced" seemed honest and on the right track.


Surely thats what they have in the books. On the one side there are Nasdaq rules to follow in respect of publishing annual numbers within a certain timeframe and on the other side there is Tiago ruthlessly trying to contain spending.

You can also contain spending by postponing your audits in "lesser busy periods" which obviously Cytori did since the numbers presented on March 4 were still UNAUDITED.

If that still is the case 8 days later - on March 12th that is- maybe a CC on those unaudited numbers might not be the best idea.... :whistle:

Whatever- I think Tiago is doing a good job under the circumstances- which circumstances are pretty strenuous. Of course I also am violently opposed to the restrictive information policies of Marc Hedrick and slowly feel that his time has come to say GOODBYE :bye: . :evil:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Watch out for waterfall drop 11 Mar 2015 15:55 #3747

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I know revenues aren't the whole story at the moment but I thought the $5-$8 million product sales guidance stunk given what was suggested by DOV in his interactive spreadsheet.

So are they low balling ?
Is a CTX2 delay effecting their projections for 2015 ?
Are they simply moving all of China revenue expectations to 2016 ?
Is usage still to remain this low for 2015...especially in Japan ?

So I feel some clarification on the above would be nice. Not that I am expecting it...LOL :cry:

Otherwise, the close today was indeed a pleasant surprise from just 2 weeks ago or so. :joy:
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Watch out for waterfall drop 11 Mar 2015 16:16 #3748

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I should add to the list possible currency issues...something I have brought up in the past and asked DOV if he considered it when making his spreadsheet...which he said he did not if I remember correctly.

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Watch out for waterfall drop 11 Mar 2015 16:24 #3749

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Sigh.. :cry:

Personally- I think sales guessing, forecasting and spreadsheeting are off-limits at present. At least for 2015 and probably 2016 too.

So- taking care of currency fluctuations is an even more useless affair. :bash: :bang: :bash:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Watch out for waterfall drop 11 Mar 2015 16:33 #3750

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Hmmm...I thought you were for the interactive spreadsheet.
Agree...real progress is to be measured in our clinical trials at this but sales do represent early adoption and until we hear otherwise every dollar counts !!!!

Anyway...lets hope tomorrow night has something of a informative nature beyond the recent slides. CFO vs CEO comments may be the more pressing matter to be addressed.

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Watch out for waterfall drop 11 Mar 2015 16:49 #3751

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Hedge-

As a liberal- , accommodating publisher I support all activities. Spreadsheeting from a personal perspective I consider relevant only as to when to expect decent cash flows which must come from Japan- but than again Hedrick is a closed book (as usual) on that. If not Japan- scleroderma in 2017 in the US is a distinct possibility (decent, material cash flows, that is).

Taking Lorem, Cellactive or translational stuff as we have been seeing it in the past 5 years into the crystal balling is (to me) absolute peanuts and a waste of time relative to the future revenue potential of the technology. :bye:
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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Watch out for waterfall drop 11 Mar 2015 18:24 #3753

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Just a heads up, this could drop to 1,05 OR/AND to ,72 (give or take ,02)

OR Low $2s, depending on the Call, and if Marc will cry again :bash:

It should be fast with a ton of Volume....


I wouldn't chase it either way, will have days/weeks to calm down, either way.

Good luck

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Watch out for waterfall drop 11 Mar 2015 21:53 #3754

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cytxer wrote: Just a heads up, this could drop to 1,05 OR/AND to ,72 (give or take ,02)

OR Low $2s, depending on the Call, and if Marc will cry again :bash:

It should be fast with a ton of Volume....


I wouldn't chase it either way, will have days/weeks to calm down, either way.

Good luck



I am in the camp that this whole recent huge volume on superficial (subjective - don't attack me!) news was just an inside attempt to placate nasdaq and keep it above $1. I think it will settle in the $1 dollar range. or maybe sub $1pps.

I'm ready to load up (again). One day (sounds depressingly repetitive) this will shoot to $25 pps and I want to make sure I have the right amount of shares so I can tell my Ukrainian wife...F the hryvnia to dollar ratio, your mother can stay in my guest house!

hahaha. However, I am in the DOV camp..... this ticker is a $100+ pps. PERIOD.

MONOPOLY. I love the game.

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Watch out for waterfall drop 12 Mar 2015 04:04 #3755

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Not just NASDAQ compliance but there is the cash issue that should have been at least partially taken care of in the run.
Someone put in a lot of effort to get us here and the insiders weren't the ones who did it.

Today, what was resistance (the 200dma) was support. RSI still high so some consolidation would be OK and normal. Going forward we will just have to see but if we get a positive cash level update that would be welcome news.

CCDG...you sure DOV only looking for $100+ LOL. What about forgotmorthanuno ? : :evil: :grin: :winky:

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Watch out for waterfall drop 13 Mar 2015 09:00 #3777

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IMHO, we just got to the first stop, which is the MAJOR support, if broken (meaning closing below, and not snapping back over next week) we will be headed a bit lower 20-25% or so (mid ,70s), but then should be safe for a few weeks chop-chop action, then should be a multi-month path towards the next leg up which should be very interesting...

Good luck.

P.S. I just saw a basher predicting the same price range for us (77) though it is not my target... I am not him, but the funny thing about this universe we live in is that there are several ways of reaching the same conclusion.
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Watch out for waterfall drop 13 Mar 2015 09:41 #3778

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i think close near 1.14 - comfort zone

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holdi

Watch out for waterfall drop 13 Mar 2015 13:13 #3779

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We went from 1.47 to 1.03 and now bouncing back. Maybe we shall close at midpoint, before sending Hedrick to Japan.

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