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TOPIC: Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections

Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 18 Dec 2014 16:07 #2945

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I e-mailed this file to Fas in case my attempt fails to attach properly. Once again, this file is a starting point and belongs to all posters on this web site who wish to contribute toward changes. It might be smart to wait until after 4th quarter numbers have been released (early March) and the announced presentations have been made in San Francisco (mid January) before making any changes. But, let's kick the tires with this and see how it goes.
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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 18 Dec 2014 16:10 #2946

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Fas, looks like the excel spreadsheet did not attach. Also, feel free to move the file to another topic listing.

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 18 Dec 2014 17:13 #2947

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Not your fault Lewis-

I have to define in the Kunena configuration which files can be uploaded and your .xlsx ending was not included to date.

I will try to pass it on now- in case this does not work for some reason- will look at it tomorrow to post it at Google.sheets- so anybody can look and work with it.

It is highly recommended to work with Open Office ( from Oracle) though compared to MS Office. Everybody can download that for free whilst MS office is more for "corporate folks" with a heavy price tag which is NOT supported by any additional functionality :grin:

At this time- I am having problems too- will solve them tomorrow, since I am past bedtime. :grin:


File Attachment:

File Name: IncomeStatements.xls
File Size: 19 KB
Attachments:
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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 19 Dec 2014 06:46 #2949

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In case you do not have MS office or Open Office on your machine, you can visit Google sheets and play around with it - but please re-name and save under that name.

Link: Dynamic CYTX LT Forecast
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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 19 Dec 2014 08:22 #2952

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Thank you, Fas. Viewers note that several years worth of quarterly data has been hidden prior to the annual only columns.

Today's news builds upon the support Cytori is getting from the US Government. I was hoping the funds would be designated toward accelerating the development of the next generation Celution system. Not the case! There is no shortage of Celution 800 devices to populate trial sites, but KT Lim's buildout will happen much faster when the new device is available for mass production.
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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 19 Dec 2014 11:19 #2959

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Dov,
I am going to have to go back and listen to last call again, but didn't Marc say that he expected funds to be used for speeding production of next generation cellution machine as well ? So, this is just another back pedal. Seems good news from Cytori always seems to get tainted and the story always changes.

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 19 Dec 2014 13:00 #2962

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rothco619 wrote: Dov,
I am going to have to go back and listen to last call again, but didn't Marc say that he expected funds to be used for speeding production of next generation cellution machine as well ? So, this is just another back pedal. Seems good news from Cytori always seems to get tainted and the story always changes.


I don't think this is correct. Cytori can use the BARDA funds however they want. This is just accounting. The BARDA funding reporting has always been worded in exactly the way they have worded it.

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 19 Dec 2014 13:40 #2963

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RothCo-

Yes- you were quite right that Hedrick said he is negotiating getting additional funds from BARDA to accelerate the development of the CRT1 or whatever the new generation Celution its called now.

From the announcement today apparently DOV concludes that this is not the case, but for something else......

If I read the announcement again and see..

The supplemental funds from this amended contract will be primarily used to support 2015 activities such as verification, testing and validation for delivery and processing of adipose-derived regenerative cells (ADRCs™).


this sounds to me like "the QA" part of the Celution processing- i.e. to my knowledge- the miRNA part or any new technology they intend to use for that. :whistle: :whistle:

Aga- no no. Funds spending is very very tightly controlled and allocated to specific tasks and deliverables. Believe me. :grin:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 19 Dec 2014 15:06 #2964

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Well, if the additional funds are for development of the CRT1, then they should have been very clear about that. The date the new generation system becomes available is the beginning of the "real" revenue ramp with Lorem, in my opinion.Cosmetic surgeons will also be able to afford the unit. Last I heard Marc say was a prototype would be available in the second half of 2015.

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 19 Dec 2014 15:11 #2965

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agmenus.

Not correct, Cytori must use funds exactly as specified by the BARDA agreement and, as I understand it, they get reimbursed after the the costs are incurred and they submit reports, The also earn a profit margin or markup that will help with the cash position to some extent.

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 19 Dec 2014 15:19 #2966

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DOV,

As you know we get a $5,000,000 order from Lorem on China approval. As I understand it, the sites for this this initial order are already identified.I think we can get a ramp up in the surgical centers without the smaller version but not in cosmetic surgery. Cytori screwed up by pushing the Celution One instead of going small. Remember the hype around that??? SO many missteps over the last few years but if you set aside the balance sheet for a second, things are looking up.

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 19 Dec 2014 15:49 #2967

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fas wrote: Aga- no no. Funds spending is very very tightly controlled and allocated to specific tasks and deliverables. Believe me. :grin:


I can't agree on this. It says "primarily used to support 2015 activities such as..." I am not a lawyer but this does not say "primarily used to support 2015 activities, specifically...". BIG difference here.

Wall Street Titan wrote: Not correct, Cytori must use funds exactly as specified by the BARDA agreement and, as I understand it, they get reimbursed after the the costs are incurred and they submit reports, The also earn a profit margin or markup that will help with the cash position to some extent.


First of all, the costs are part of the 8.3 million, not the 14 million. Second, although this is moot since the extra 2 million is part of the 14.1 million -- even if it was part of the 8.3 million, implementing the next generation system could be considered part of the cost.

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 22 Dec 2014 12:22 #2969

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(NVM, must have been sleeping.)

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 24 Dec 2014 03:15 #2976

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DOV,

thanks for the projection. For me it is importent that we can see in 2015 a significant improvement of product sale and burn rate. When we are in 2017 near break even that would be great. I personaly have for 2018-2020 three scenarios, low (+25% yoy revenue) middle(50%) and high (100%) adaption rate. But the forecast of those numbers is difficult. the projections from 2008 was that we generate today 1$ per share :write:

holdi

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holdi

Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 24 Dec 2014 15:45 #2979

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Looking at the projections posted, you're leaving out gain from sale of stock in 2015 (assuming Sabby buys the extra 45 million in shares and another 20 million is sold to others), aren't you?

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 24 Dec 2014 16:30 #2981

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Aga-

Do not make life more complicated than it already is. :grin:

Stock sales and secondaries typically flow straight into "shareholders equity"- i.e. the Balance sheet and do not touch the Profit and loss statement at all, as long as they are arms length i.e. at the prevailing market price at the time of closing the deal.

If not- i.e. the sale of equity is at a premium price- which happened before with Olympus and Astellas ( which was plain silly, typical Calhoun windowdressing)- the difference between market has a P&L impact.

At least 50 years of accounting experience taught me one or two things... :grin: :vegas:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 24 Dec 2014 17:02 #2983

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Yes Fas...but the outstanding share count will matter as we try to bring revenues to the bottom line.

I still feel we need to show that the share count has stopped before we attract serious long term institutions given we are in a completely new field.

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 24 Dec 2014 21:33 #2984

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On the other hand, the actual cash balance makes a big difference as to whether Cytori needs more loans (and debt to equity conversions change the calculation of the debt service), and of course it is important to know what $1 of Cytori stock today bought on the market is one year from now, at least in terms of changes of shareholder equity. (since we can't predict the stock price)

Perhaps it might be a good idea to revisit these calculations after we know whether Sabby gets their conversions, at what premium (or not) to the stock price, and what their intentions are next month...

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 25 Dec 2014 06:21 #2985

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I still feel we need to show that the share count has stopped before we attract serious long term institutions given we are in a completely new field.


Hedge-

The purpose of this thread is, that DOV shared a tool which we can all use to have a go at forecasting the financial future of Cytori. And the fact that he has been looking at the Company quite intensively makes this valuable. Anything else, is still up into the sky. :winky:

This is quite OK - if you look at the spreadsheets of Kolbert & Co, you realize that even guys who were CFO´s at regen companies (like Kolbert was with NBS) do not make the best accountants/bookkeepers for spreadsheet set up. DOV kept it simple, which is really important at this stage of the game. Actually- I will do something in the future too, but will wait until I am 100% convinced that Cytori will be a "going concern" i.e. will survive. :cool: :KO:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 25 Dec 2014 09:23 #2986

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Fas, Cytori , in my opinion, will be a going concern. Nobody will ever be able to "prove" it before it happens, but you must believe it is a dilution question ........and not a realistic question whether they'll make it ir not. Like you, I'm long the stock because I do know for sure the "stuff" works and I believe we have the best mouse trap ..... Even patented items regarding the mouse trap. Merry Christmas brother. It'll all play out soon.
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