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TOPIC: How generous will the market be ?

How generous will the market be ? 09 Nov 2014 22:46 #2627

  • myownhedgefund
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Because its almost impossible to think CYTX is worth $ 0.43 today !

Sadly for me..when I look at the numbers in a objective and honest manner its worth less. :cry:

Market goodwill is all we have to rely on short term until concrete signs of recovery take hold. Slowing the bleeding eventually still kills the patient

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How generous will the market be ? 10 Nov 2014 08:25 #2628

  • StevieRay
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I believe the current share price is firmly in the hands of the controlling powers who financed the deal. They will continue to manipulate the share price to maximize their profits and minimize their risk. I speculate most of the trading is done via computerized trading algorithms and they will continue trading within some predetermined ranged until they have accomplished their goals. This may take several months to achieve. Meanwhile they monitor managements progress and if milestones are achieved then we might see a small bump up in the trading range. But all in all this stock is in full control of those who financed the latest deal. If KT Lim hires a hedge fund to challenge the current players then we could see more volatility but the overall picture will not change until the management team executes on their cost savings and can prove they can generate real revenues without squandering the profits. I’m sure KT Lim is very busy in preparation of their China approval and is not too concerned about what is happening with the current share price just so long as the company stays a float so he can get is supply agreement fulfilled. If he ever perceives that his supply chain is threatened in anyway then I believe he will step in to assist in some way. Who really knows what KT Lim is doing in the background. Would love to see an update on his web site. It has been very static ever since he stepped into the picture.
I’m still a little suspicious of the events leading up to the deal and find it very hard to believe that management thought this deal was better than tapping the 40 Million ATM. If you read the last August transcript it sounded as though they intended to tap the 40 Million ATM. If they tap it now I dread what that may do to the current share price. And maybe management are just as human as we are and were paralyzed with fear of tapping the 40 Million ATM resulting in the current deal. I’m sure the bankers said this was the best deal you could ever procure and that it was best to just accept the terms rather than attempting to tap the ATM. Management really needs to execute on some modest goals before this stock makes any significant moves.
For me, I got in well over per share and feel trapped in my investment. Selling now is not in the cards. It’s already nearly a total loss but I won’t lock it in until they are truly done. It’s tempting to buy more and average down but there is a very strong possibility of getting chopped in half again and perhaps again. However, if management does pull a rabbit or two out of their hats then I would reconsider averaging down. BioTech can change on a dime. Long ago I bought into another local outfit who where nearly all was lost and it eventually turned around. Anyone remember Amylyn? One of my first BioTechs. I piled into it very heavily at 48 cents and it turned a pretty hefty profit a few years later. So who knows what’s in the cards for Cytori. I’ll continue to hold out for a turn around. It’s not going to be easy and will probably take awhile but I think the science speaks for itself.
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How generous will the market be ? 10 Nov 2014 12:06 #2630

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valuable post Sevie. Well spoken and argumented.

Hedge- you really seem to indulge in your negativity off late. It is obvious that the fair value of a stock like CYTX has nothing to do with its book value of neg. 3 Mio, but what its discounted future cash flows will be.

At one point in time investors in Dendreon thought >25 $ would equate to that and heaps of future cash would be generated by Provenge. Today however they filed for Chapter 11.

Since ADRCs work and Provenge is simply too expensive for its efficacy, I believe Cytori is worth a whole lot and therefore buying some stock. The difference between me and the market is that I know its true that ADRCs work, but the market really does not.

That has to do with Cytori´s IR in the past and also as Hedrick says- he wants to get some hard Phase II data for the market to understand that. So far they have simply been fücking around with everything and have not completed anything. With Phase II data - he obviously means the "device equivalent".

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

How generous will the market be ? 10 Nov 2014 12:47 #2632

  • franshei
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I am new here. I have decided to quit Yahoo board, after I have seen waves after waves of unreasonable postings.

I have read SteveRay's recent postings on Yahoo and I am familiar with his views-excellent indeed. Amylin had FDA problems re their cardio drug and that the time, I told the headhunter (who came through Paul Schecter, who was interim VP medical) that it would be very, very hard to win a battle with FDA and I felt Amylin would go under. Yet, the company got through the problems and prospered. Dendreon has been a high flier and now the wings have been cut off.

In the case of CYTX, I think the problems are not related to the platform technologies, but more to 1. overspending; 2. focus in the wrong areas, which would require very expensive development costs. Cardiac indication is always be difficult to develop-complicated and very, very expensive. I worked for Fujisawa/Astellas as their medical director for years and I am not convinced that their upper management in the US (and maybe in Japan) is interested in medical devices for cardiac applications. It was in the past, but they may change their general views in the future. Without a big pharma, it would be very difficult to develop celution system for cardiac applications in the US, while celution systems can be used overseas for these applications overseas with less stringent regulatory requirements. FDA has changed drastically over the years. If they were so restricted 20-30 years ago, no cancer drugs would ever come to the market. All earlier cancer drugs were approved by the FDA based on limited phase 2 data. Etoposide was approved based on just 18 patients (U. Of Indiana).

I think Hedrick is now on the right track to go after niche indications in the US. Just look at GERN and earlier ISIS, all have going after niche markets, before going into the big league. The key is CYTX needs to show to the world that they can get something through the US FDA (while things are very different elsewhere). Still, CYTX should not forget the overseas commercialization of the celution systems, as a source of income.

I think CYTX should sell some assets, including some valuable ones (hard to pinpoint which area/s, because they are all overlapping/interrelated). I think in terms of partnerships, they may want of sell sales and marketing rights in Japan and EU, while keeping the manufacturing rights (Deeside, Wales-new manufacturing site).

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How generous will the market be ? 10 Nov 2014 13:33 #2633

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I have, and continue to be a believer in the science ............ but believing has been a very costly mistake. As I own my shares without margin and I do not need to sell for living expenses I can conceivably hold for as long as the share is listed. The question is should I hold or fold. I am not a day trader so I do not dwell on the day to day or intra day volatility. Unfortunately the long string of consecutive days with negative price movements are rather disconcerting (sarcasm).

Stevie, management is truly working in the best interests of the shareholders ........ the issue is which ones. So many opportunities for dilutive takeover of this company by our new owners it beggars belief *. These hedgefunds have lucked into a situation were they have effectively taken a controlling stake in a company with incredible potential. They will no doubt hold managements feet to the fire. Can MH perform. If he does they make out like bandits. If he doesn't they will dilute the shit out of us and/or take the company private and/or sell it to the highest bidder ........... ie. make out like bandits.

This is not the sort of WIN WIN I had in mind when I first invested in Macropore.

Does MH have the fortitude to do the right thing or will he sell out / buckle under the pressure? :really:

Mark, only a partnership deal will save us, and you. Minority shareholders and management are all expendable.

Sometimes I wonder whether we are paying the price of CC's failure with the Medtronic deal ........ Once bitten twice shy......... :KO:

Hedge, If CYTX was an IPO, without its history just its clinical and IP story, do you really think it would be trading at 38 cents.

Cytori was/is a racehorse that has been handicapped with an overweight management. The race is not over. They got rid of quite a few kilos :




* Poison pill provisions don't apply when you invite the takeover/purchaser in. :bash:
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How generous will the market be ? 10 Nov 2014 14:41 #2634

  • fas
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Calidoscopio


Have to remember the name of that horse. Amazing come back.

Anyway- just glanced at the financials- 328 Mio paid in capital. The "new owners" spent 13+ Mio or less than 4 % of that amount to own 40% of Cytori.

Incredible. :evil:

Well done guys :bye:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:
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