Interesting that the analyst predictions were spot on at -0.24 for Q4 and -1.28 for 2016.
The question I have is how much money was laid out for the acquisition during Q4 and if this was deleted, would the 2016 annual be a little closer to DOV's estimate of -0.99 for the year.
There was no cash outlay for the acquisition in 2016. My first year predictions try to match company guidance as closely as possible. The main difference was the share count, not the loss number.
Maxim came out with an updated report today and I must congratulate Jason Kolbert on his improved effort. He shows 2019 estimated Azaya revenue (royalties) at $18.066 million. I will go with his lead since I would bet Tiago guided him somewhat to that number. But, I will round it down to $15 million and hold it flat into 2020, which will be my most distant year.
I don't mean to sound condescending, but has this board really not yet realized that Cytori is in bed with Maxim and Jason Kolbert? Their reports, guidance, and stock price estimates have been - and will continue to be - grossly exaggerated predictions based on the erroneous assumption that Cytori is capable and effective in their business practice -- something they've never been. Can you not detect the bullshit show and performance put on by JK and Cytori on every single conference call? It's ridiculous. And if your reports are matching company guidance and Maxim/JK guidance, there really is no reason to make them -- the misleading information is too plentiful as is. Leave it to them and spare us. Also, you may want to take a look into the success rate and rankings of Jason Kolbert as an analyst and stock advisor. He's beyond horrible, perhaps worse than one blindly picking stock symbols from a hat, and yet holds himself out as a finance professional. The farce is hysterical.
Thanks DOV, I find your information very useful as a comparison to and independent from the analyst estimates. I sincerely hope that the board will not be closed for posting or at least exceptions made for posters like yourself who have something of value to contribute.
You are correct in everything you posted. My original motivation for posting the five year forecast was because the quality of Jason's work was so poor. There was a need for investors to have a "working" document that provided not only the numbers. but the thought process behind the numbers. That way, we could debate the forecast beyond the current year. I have complained to Marc and Tiago about the poor quality of Jason's reports and they have convinced him to correct his errors. His latest report has the fewest number of errors than any report to date. Still, his credibility will be forever tainted by his past carelessness. Andrew D'Silva with B Riley did an excellent job with his initial coverage piece dated December 16, 2016.
The reason I will not be extending my spreadsheet beyond 2020 is partly because if the company fails to perform by then, it will likely be bankrupt. Secondly, should Scleroderma and the nano medicine venture work out, there will likely be several more analysts covering Cytori with high quality forecasts.
I will be posting a new spreadsheet later today. 2017 will represent the company's guidance as best as I can interpret that. 2018 through 2020 will represent my view of a logical ramp up of the various revenue sources. I will also compare my numbers to Maxim and B Riley. I do not have an updated report from B Riley.