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TOPIC: Stock From Hell

Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 10:26 #8110

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Sad to see that volume has dried up and that we seem to be on our way back to a buck. Guess that means another reverse split, more dilution and continued torture. Rinse wash repeat. Oh, how I miss Chris Calhoun.

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Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 12:54 #8112

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rothco619 wrote: Sad to see that volume has dried up and that we seem to be on our way back to a buck. Guess that means another reverse split, more dilution and continued torture. Rinse wash repeat. Oh, how I miss Chris Calhoun.


One really has to agree with you... like a bat out-of-hell in respect of value creation for shareholders.

Just as an example playing around with numbers....:whistle:

Today I spend the non-spent portion of my November pension on acquiring CYTX shares, like I have been doing on a miniscule scale several times this year.

I bought 400 shares for 580 Euros at 1.52$ - that is pre-split 10 cents and we are now at a market cap of 31 Million.....31 Million, I repeat.

400 shares also mean 6.000 shares pre-split for which in February 2010 one had to pay more than 58.000 Dollars i.e. I merely paid roughly 1% of that money for a stock that by my estimation has a lot more intrinsic value now compared those days in February 2010 when over 9$ had to be paid for a share.

All due to bad performance of its managers who still collect big rewards and bonuses regardless of the PPS or market capitalization.

Crazy.. yes - but like I have written before- its make or break time...soon. :evil:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 13:27 #8113

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Fas,

You and I seem to share some similar characteristics regarding our current disposition to this company as an investment. I too am thoroughly disgusted by the greed and lack of accountability of management, and I too own many shares that are now worth about 1-2% of the value I paid for them. However I also agree with your assessment that the company has never been closer to a clinical success of the magnitude that Scleroderma looks to be. So as a result, I continue to buy in chunks every quarter.

I know this board is filled with mostly pessimists due to years of losses. But since $31 million is the current market cap, surely this stock represents a monster opportunity for gains with a Phase 3 trial nearing results. My assessment is that any type of resolution of the impending debt issue pushes our market cap back up to 50-100 million, and any meaningful partnership may get us closer to the 100-200 million range. This is not even to mention the possibilities if the STAR results are good.

Curious to hear others opinions about what a fair value for this company would be. What is Cytori really worth, with the clinical pipeline they possess? Surely the number is more than 31 million.

Just my two cents.

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Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 13:36 #8114

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Fas said in his post that " it's make or break time...soon" - very true - we will likely know before the end of Q-1 - if we don't have a cash partnership by then (possibly in January after stock option grants) to take us through to breakeven in 2018, then this stock is basically toast - a secondary would be the death knell imo.

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Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 13:58 #8115

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FAS, JMHO, but buying shares of this sorry story when you already own a nice chunk is insane with another secondary looming. If by some miracle Cytori gets out of this jam without further dilution, you already have enough upside. What is your rationale?? You seem to think a secondary is the most likely scenario like I do yet you buy. Why?

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Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 14:17 #8116

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Considering the fact that they continue to hemorrhage the cash that they have sucked out of their shareholders and have never had a successful product launch 31m market cap is merely an overvalued hedge. This paper is a lottery ticket and the dilutions that these "managers" have heaped upon their shareholders have only increased the odds for all of us. As far as Hedrick turning down partnership offers - that is total bullshit. If there was any perceived value in the technology the market would express it and he would take anything and run with it. I used to hope I was wrong about this company. I now know that I am right. I am just glad that when Maxim called me I had learned my lesson and told the guy to go fuck himself. How does it feel to keep putting in your money and see it just waste away? At least I knew when to quit.
The following user(s) said Thank You: rothco619

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Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 14:31 #8117

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irrational,

$31MM is not the number to look at. Add on the $17.7 debt and you get an enterprise value of $49MM. But even that number is irrelevant because the company has a cash squeeze coming and the debt holders could control its fate. The model of creating a "drug" by individual batch for Scleroderma is the HUGE obstacle to a partnership.

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Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 14:32 #8118

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Wall Street Titan wrote: FAS, JMHO, but buying shares of this sorry story when you already own a nice chunk is insane with another secondary looming. If by some miracle Cytori gets out of this jam without further dilution, you already have enough upside. What is your rationale?? You seem to think a secondary is the most likely scenario like I do yet you buy. Why?


WST

Like I have stated a thousand times before- the technology is for me, still the one and only. Holistic and advancing homeostasis across the vascular system if injected IV, i.e. including all organs and systems of the human being without causing side-effects. THE SOLUTION.

Hedrick has been saying all along that the Rights Offering was the last financing needed to put the Company on its way- I am investing dimes now to cover my ass in case he was right. I have sufficient powder upcoming in the near future to take a more sizable stake in case a secondary is really coming.

But really- with 31 Mio market cap, you cannot do a secondary any longer, even Hedrick and Girao should know that. :whistle:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 14:45 #8119

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Fas, But Hedrick was basing this on a ramp up in IDIS revenues that never came, wasn't he? Not to mention that not many of his promises have worked since he took control.

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Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 14:49 #8120

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What are the reasons for this hell stock and what maybe the resolutions:

1. The cytori cell therapy does not work per US drug approval standard? The scleroderma and the Barda studies have good rationales and they are being conducted per rigid US drug approval standards. The scleroderma phase 3 data would be availabe mid 2017. There are numerous US and EU studies clearly indicate that stem cells therapy works in scleroderma and also in wound healing.

2. CYTX needs more money by mid 2017 to meet obligations and general operations? Cash on hand plus cost cutting plus Japanese revenue are not enough. Either a secondary or upfront cash from a corporate partnership is needed. Hail Mary: let us pray that the latter is coming no later than the end of the first Q, 2017. CYTX needs to pawn the crown jewel: scleroderma for a global deal (cardio and OA are good sales and marketing in the Far East, but not good enough for a US medical device deal.)

CYTX can do trials in other niche indications, but the company needs money.

SO, CASH is KING.

Marc and Tiago, are you listening? Wipe your butts and do something. Maybe Celactive can also help: learn from Donald Trump, who can also work with enemies.

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Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 14:51 #8121

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Fas, the market cap of 31 million is totally ridiculous - the imminent cash squeeze is obviously a big part of the problem, but you are right that I don't think that Hedrick could be dumb enough to consider a secondary at this price level - that's why I think he will have to accept a cash partnership(s) that may not be totally to his liking, but will be the only option.

PS - to get some perspective as to the CYTX market cap absurdity - consider that ATHX is currently $134 million and was $190 million less than 2 months ago - ATHX is a great company and has about 6 months more cash flexibility than CYTX, but when you consider both portfolios, something does not make sense!

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Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 15:18 #8122

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Yes Athersys should be much higher with its scalable allogeneic model, a HUGE potential market in stroke and a fully funded pivotal trial in Japan with a lowered bar for conditional approval if full approval does not come first. Not to mention a smart CEO.

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Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 15:51 #8123

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No question that CYTX and ATHX are both undervalued - however, my point is that ATHX selling at 4 to 5 times the market value of CYTX makes absolutely no sense given the respective portfolios and even considering the cash issue - I agree also that the CEO comparability is part of the gap, but not nearly $100 million.

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Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 17:24 #8124

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You are underestimating the precarious financial condition of Cytori and the limited options available as a reason for its current valuation.

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Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 18:07 #8125

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Street, think company is doomed but in true Cytori fashion management will sell out for a song and a dance but will manage a golden parachute for themselves as the final insult to shareholders.
The fat lady is about to sing

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Stock From Hell 01 Dec 2016 19:29 #8128

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I hear what you are saying, but the low CYTX valuation just seems too extreme considering its portfolio (the BARDA contract alone imo has $30 million of potential).

PS - WST, do you have any insight as to what has transpired with ATHX that has made the SP decline from a close of 2.24 on October 10th to 1.56 today - that is huge considering no news and a rising market.

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Stock From Hell 02 Dec 2016 05:40 #8129

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Interestingly, as an add-on to my prior post, the CYTX SP went from 2.25 on Sept. 8th to 1.50 yesterday - very close match with ATHX although with CYTX there is the cash issue to rationalize the move - with ATHX, the reason is not apparent.

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Stock From Hell 03 Dec 2016 09:58 #8141

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You answered the question yourself, "no news". The story is intact and this is a great opportunity to get in if you don't already have a position, IMHO.

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Stock From Hell 03 Dec 2016 11:03 #8142

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If you are saying that "no news" is the reason for the huge drop in ATHX stock in less than two months, then that only makes sense if "news" was expected - what news would have been expected during that time frame? :really:

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Stock From Hell 03 Dec 2016 12:54 #8144

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A new partnership for the U.S. or an expansion of the partnership with Healios, something Gil specifically spoke about enthusiastically early this year on a conference call. I'm not worried about Athersys and I believe it is grossly undervalued given the upside and potential partnership news at any time. I am disappointed about the stock price though.

WST

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